{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15a2f056-5325-4e20-9ae7-18ccd7512c61", "symbol": "UONE", "name": "Urban One", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.109, "architecture_energy": 51.166, "architecture_maturity": 71.413, "architecture_confidence": 94.667, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.07, "rotation_up": 25.63, "upward_expansion": 9.67, "deceleration": 44.67, "rotation_down": 49.95, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.079067, 5.175018, 5.554433, 6.153875 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.16, "trend_reference": 7.332933, "distance_from_trend": -0.296325, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.053071, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.742683, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.932879, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.576702, "excess_performance": -0.764156, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.296325, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220744, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.742683, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041855, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.549329, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028689, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.576702, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.733452, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26251, "relative_activity": 0.066137, "balance": 0.733452, "dry_up": 0.084346, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.166744, "annualized_volatility": 0.951203, "from_high_reference": -0.721081, "from_low_reference": 0.114447 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.332933, "fair_value_reference": 20.053071, "structural_low": 4.6301, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.031746, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.525, "median_excess_return": -0.021083, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.396391, "worst_return": -0.424242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.008964, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018114, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.252319, "worst_return": -0.501299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.308081, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.47545, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.32567, "worst_return": -0.556863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-68.371996, "energy": 56.603058, "activity_lines": [ 5.223333, 5.585545, 5.944119, 6.858903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.99, "volume": 54783, "typical_volume": 429460.25, "trend": 7.894533, "fair_value": 21.050814, "relative_strength": -58.066445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.675829, "energy": 57.400191, "activity_lines": [ 5.093333, 5.424545, 5.799619, 6.657084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.152, "volume": 17126, "typical_volume": 425087.35, "trend": 7.716267, "fair_value": 20.71525, "relative_strength": -54.75475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.231644, "energy": 45.039444, "activity_lines": [ 5.064667, 5.336091, 5.700976, 6.480146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.04, "volume": 35754, "typical_volume": 420034.45, "trend": 7.540933, "fair_value": 20.378968, "relative_strength": -54.898169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.727666, "energy": 45.494385, "activity_lines": [ 5.049867, 5.235782, 5.614848, 6.307484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.16, "volume": 26251, "typical_volume": 396919.7, "trend": 7.332933, "fair_value": 20.053071, "relative_strength": -54.932879, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.1091, "energy": 51.166435, "activity_lines": [ 5.079067, 5.175018, 5.554433, 6.153875 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }