{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15a8ebb9-997b-42c6-b49d-51a6642f5b42", "symbol": "002915", "name": "Zhejiang Zhongxin Fluoride Materials Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.197, "architecture_energy": 61.936, "architecture_maturity": 53.796, "architecture_confidence": 90.163, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.92, "rotation_up": 13.84, "upward_expansion": 15.61, "deceleration": 35.54, "rotation_down": 66.88, "downward_expansion": 86.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.99, 17.922546, 19.050381, 19.73428 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.27, "trend_reference": 20.819333, "distance_from_trend": -0.12245, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.58359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.101692, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.234283, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.198684, "excess_performance": -0.206084, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12245, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077552, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.101692, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185943, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232343, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01251, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.198684, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.444021, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68303530, "relative_activity": 1.380991, "balance": 0.444021, "dry_up": 0.937632, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154057, "annualized_volatility": 0.614476, "from_high_reference": -0.443666, "from_low_reference": 0.26174 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.819333, "fair_value_reference": 16.58359, "structural_low": 14.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.048222, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.028389, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.323785, "worst_return": -0.245318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.026103, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.072785, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.149573, "worst_return": -0.253843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.062745, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019369, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.232824, "worst_return": -0.31064, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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70201429, "typical_volume": 46273087.5, "trend": 21.664, "fair_value": 16.577628, "relative_strength": -28.084219, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.2787, "energy": 42.847317, "activity_lines": [ 19.622667, 20.077637, 20.391238, 20.926065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.16, "volume": 44871994, "typical_volume": 47129861.0, "trend": 21.492, "fair_value": 16.580513, "relative_strength": -26.126957, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.499303, "energy": 51.897617, "activity_lines": [ 18.691334, 19.463455, 20.049476, 20.635484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.43, "volume": 41978675, "typical_volume": 47649146.6, "trend": 21.269667, "fair_value": 16.573333, "relative_strength": -33.395624, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.43269, "energy": 60.554592, "activity_lines": [ 17.482, 18.606364, 19.57381, 20.244387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.120001, "volume": 30346176, "typical_volume": 47622249.6, "trend": 21.027, "fair_value": 16.571218, "relative_strength": -29.011319, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.954327, "energy": 70.682129, "activity_lines": [ 16.798667, 18.014364, 19.195191, 19.912151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.27, "volume": 68303530, "typical_volume": 49459807.2, "trend": 20.819333, "fair_value": 16.58359, "relative_strength": -23.234283, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.196976, "energy": 61.936415, "activity_lines": [ 16.99, 17.922546, 19.050381, 19.73428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }