{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "15b2102e-0e73-4878-808f-0e831b0511c7",
    "symbol": "AURG",
    "name": "Aurskog Sparebank",
    "exchange": "OSL",
    "country": "NO",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 64.586,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 35.847,
    "architecture_energy": 20.95,
    "architecture_maturity": 28.397,
    "architecture_confidence": 49.088,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 52.4,
        "rotation_up": 37.13,
        "upward_expansion": 60.21,
        "deceleration": 64.52,
        "rotation_down": 23.48,
        "downward_expansion": 14.87
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        256.289999,
        256.186364,
        256.55262,
        255.345164
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 257.0,
    "trend_reference": 252.867691,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.016342,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 212.962959,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.206783,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -5.77127,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.064683,
    "excess_performance": -0.060311,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016342,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.025096,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.206783,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.030888,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.057713,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00722,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.064683,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.062823,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 784,
      "relative_activity": 0.207487,
      "balance": 1.062823,
      "dry_up": 0.691403,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.012571,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.090077,
      "from_high_reference": -0.032744,
      "from_low_reference": 0.178414
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 252.867691,
      "fair_value_reference": 212.962959,
      "structural_low": 238.579548,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.000389,
        "positive_rate": 0.545455,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.545455,
        "median_excess_return": 0.006901,
        "regime_survival": 0.454545,
        "best_return": 0.038095,
        "worst_return": -0.028572,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.052638,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.028505,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.172422,
        "worst_return": 0.0,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.087907,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.067722,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.353407,
        "worst_return": 0.049505,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.146794,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.0415,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.379687,
        "worst_return": 0.047619,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-09-01",
        "end": "2023-12-08",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.009524,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2023-12-15",
        "end": "2023-12-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009091,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-01-05",
        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.04003,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-17",
        "end": "2024-06-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009768,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.036036,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.008621,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.051068,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.005468,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.025431,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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      {
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 210.353057,
        "relative_strength": -2.412452,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 210.844193,
        "relative_strength": -3.614879,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 255.800003,
        "volume": 897,
        "typical_volume": 3811.4,
        "trend": 251.559743,
        "fair_value": 211.359368,
        "relative_strength": -3.330556,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 25.885465,
        "energy": 17.961386,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 255.899994,
        "volume": 628,
        "typical_volume": 3776.0,
        "trend": 252.074718,
        "fair_value": 211.875184,
        "relative_strength": -5.572406,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 15.162017,
        "energy": 14.503283,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 257.0,
        "volume": 8141,
        "typical_volume": 3968.35,
        "trend": 252.408051,
        "fair_value": 212.419072,
        "relative_strength": -5.525561,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.338941,
        "energy": 15.490972,
        "activity_lines": [
          255.799999,
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          255.04891
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 257.0,
        "volume": 784,
        "typical_volume": 3778.55,
        "trend": 252.867691,
        "fair_value": 212.962959,
        "relative_strength": -5.77127,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.846527,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}