{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15b4a41e-94d5-400f-8f40-73d99e9d680e", "symbol": "600826", "name": "Dlg Exhibitions & Events Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.294, "architecture_energy": 74.701, "architecture_maturity": 47.422, "architecture_confidence": 88.537, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.47, "rotation_up": 10.26, "upward_expansion": 17.22, "deceleration": 37.44, "rotation_down": 72.24, "downward_expansion": 90.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.932, 8.349392, 8.706772, 9.16049 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.01, "trend_reference": 9.922885, "distance_from_trend": -0.192775, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.090634, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009966, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.415668, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.375682, "excess_performance": -0.332478, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.192775, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080552, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009966, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.249403, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.224157, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092003, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.375682, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.32305, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24294074, "relative_activity": 0.712571, "balance": 0.32305, "dry_up": 1.036579, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103479, "annualized_volatility": 0.449397, "from_high_reference": -0.391439, "from_low_reference": 0.115599 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.922885, "fair_value_reference": 8.090634, "structural_low": 7.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.03861, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.01999, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.178082, "worst_return": -0.137045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.049011, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.057086, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.973849, "worst_return": -0.278669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.385969, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.303045, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.889934, "worst_return": -0.103376, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -72.625749, "energy": 45.875015, "activity_lines": [ 8.773333, 8.906237, 9.137771, 9.615005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.27, "volume": 37020053, "typical_volume": 33966799.45, "trend": 10.100885, "fair_value": 8.088382, "relative_strength": -28.481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.436303, "energy": 67.569942, "activity_lines": [ 8.222, 8.604777, 8.930263, 9.424883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.0, "volume": 38443072, "typical_volume": 34530523.05, "trend": 10.007218, "fair_value": 8.089857, "relative_strength": -20.934493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.416793, "energy": 72.100707, "activity_lines": [ 8.052, 8.469531, 8.811089, 9.289342 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.01, "volume": 24294074, "typical_volume": 34093556.9, "trend": 9.922885, "fair_value": 8.090634, "relative_strength": -22.415668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.293852, "energy": 74.701161, "activity_lines": [ 7.932, 8.349392, 8.706772, 9.16049 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }