{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15b60560-4a11-4529-bd85-0f7c80188ebe", "symbol": "SPGI", "name": "S&P Global Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.178, "architecture_energy": 23.548, "architecture_maturity": 22.297, "architecture_confidence": 74.813, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.72, "rotation_up": 26.3, "upward_expansion": 19.12, "deceleration": 53.47, "rotation_down": 44.49, "downward_expansion": 62.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 7265.916634, 7325.252015, 7324.286196, 7382.045587 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7000.0, "trend_reference": 7584.608936, "distance_from_trend": -0.077078, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8574.736989, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.183648, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.431454, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.094193, "excess_performance": -0.039527, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077078, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076567, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.183648, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030598, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184315, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100126, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.094193, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.088149, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 921, "relative_activity": 0.898142, "balance": 0.088149, "dry_up": 1.357697, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055882, "annualized_volatility": 0.36389, "from_high_reference": -0.339461, "from_low_reference": 0.069772 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7584.608936, "fair_value_reference": 8574.736989, "structural_low": 6543.450684, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.044323, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.031889, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.092497, "worst_return": -0.074334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.047151, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.159403, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.246224, "worst_return": -0.192614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.051543, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.144399, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.398241, "worst_return": -0.09591, "sufficient": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06409, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051327, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054406, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051779, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037011, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037433, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.123649, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06038, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02587, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114004, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6576.155762, "volume": 415, "typical_volume": 650.4, "trend": 6512.070199, "fair_value": 7399.576081, "relative_strength": -3.066785, "stage": 1, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.178261, "energy": 23.54846, "activity_lines": [ 7265.916634, 7325.252015, 7324.286196, 7382.045587 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }