{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15b6a4de-ad53-4153-a6ac-f0f55fe2f04f", "symbol": "PGMN3", "name": "Empreendimentos Pague Menos S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.885, "architecture_energy": 67.254, "architecture_maturity": 60.867, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 27.67, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 54.81, "rotation_down": 60.75, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.387333, 3.518909, 3.961333, 4.483333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.47, "trend_reference": 5.169333, "distance_from_trend": -0.328734, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.448947, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006104, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.373376, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.450949, "excess_performance": -0.393901, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.328734, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107212, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006104, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.49974, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.303734, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.242793, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.450949, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.426828, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44523700, "relative_activity": 2.164374, "balance": 0.426828, "dry_up": 1.296058, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095766, "annualized_volatility": 0.394915, "from_high_reference": -0.544619, "from_low_reference": 0.122977 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.169333, "fair_value_reference": 3.448947, "structural_low": 3.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.042801, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.039327, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.209354, "worst_return": -0.33121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.058458, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.050259, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.344978, "worst_return": -0.25942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.035147, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.093371, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.341463, "worst_return": -0.198887, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166024, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023256, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.145161, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142335, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.191056, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"close": 3.75, "volume": 16350500, "typical_volume": 22540650.0, "trend": 5.542372, "fair_value": 3.446805, "relative_strength": -28.334357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.863576, "energy": 83.797041, "activity_lines": [ 3.756667, 3.913091, 4.516619, 5.01054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.44, "volume": 22614400, "typical_volume": 22798570.0, "trend": 5.456333, "fair_value": 3.448791, "relative_strength": -32.480831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.611509, "energy": 81.109271, "activity_lines": [ 3.644, 3.788, 4.36219, 4.874903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.37, "volume": 19239600, "typical_volume": 21367335.0, "trend": 5.367667, "fair_value": 3.449379, "relative_strength": -33.736285, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.834291, "energy": 73.117806, "activity_lines": [ 3.539333, 3.680364, 4.217905, 4.740301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.18, "volume": 20268000, "typical_volume": 19804315.0, "trend": 5.265333, "fair_value": 3.448498, "relative_strength": -38.437632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.640831, "energy": 72.880078, "activity_lines": [ 3.395333, 3.562364, 4.069, 4.599161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.47, "volume": 44523700, "typical_volume": 20571165.0, "trend": 5.169333, "fair_value": 3.448947, "relative_strength": -30.373376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.885486, "energy": 67.253868, "activity_lines": [ 3.387333, 3.518909, 3.961333, 4.483333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }