{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15c74a33-24b8-4ef4-af6b-0f25299179a2", "symbol": "STX", "name": "STX_STONE ONE", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.095, "architecture_energy": 21.622, "architecture_maturity": 94.931, "architecture_confidence": 74.529, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.27, "rotation_up": 30.39, "upward_expansion": 18.76, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 25.9, "downward_expansion": 57.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.875333, 0.866, 0.871857, 0.889884 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.88, "trend_reference": 0.915114, "distance_from_trend": -0.038371, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.147172, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.232896, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.950818, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.062805, "excess_performance": -0.25513, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038371, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050146, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.232896, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003407, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.239508, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03973, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.062805, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.821081, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1289300, "relative_activity": 0.446424, "balance": 0.821081, "dry_up": 1.247464, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039336, "annualized_volatility": 0.282643, "from_high_reference": -0.345247, "from_low_reference": 0.073171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.915114, "fair_value_reference": 1.147172, "structural_low": 0.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.028572, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.02938, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.072289, "worst_return": -0.068965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.081702, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.175784, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.060345, "worst_return": -0.103059, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.157185, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.353118, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.157185, "worst_return": -0.157185, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 3568615.0, "trend": 0.923132, "fair_value": 1.153937, "relative_strength": -30.39939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.922061, "energy": 78.659388, "activity_lines": [ 0.846, 0.855091, 0.873555, 0.897092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.89, "volume": 8922700, "typical_volume": 3484185.0, "trend": 0.920579, "fair_value": 1.151701, "relative_strength": -26.390825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.915883, "energy": 36.996313, "activity_lines": [ 0.86, 0.859818, 0.873214, 0.894954 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.88, "volume": 1431100, "typical_volume": 3083590.0, "trend": 0.918, "fair_value": 1.149417, "relative_strength": -25.44861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.455602, "energy": 25.439365, "activity_lines": [ 0.869333, 0.862909, 0.872286, 0.892336 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.88, "volume": 1289300, "typical_volume": 2888060.0, "trend": 0.915114, "fair_value": 1.147172, "relative_strength": -23.950818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.094801, "energy": 21.621723, "activity_lines": [ 0.875333, 0.866, 0.871857, 0.889884 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }