{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15d2d61b-2b71-4f16-a347-fbdb0a0ac3f3", "symbol": "603950", "name": "Xiangyang Changyuandonggu Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.213, "architecture_energy": 19.6, "architecture_maturity": 33.002, "architecture_confidence": 74.492, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.79, "rotation_up": 19.0, "upward_expansion": 43.49, "deceleration": 84.69, "rotation_down": 40.81, "downward_expansion": 32.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.006666, 62.92509, 64.102106, 60.289487 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 58.599998, "trend_reference": 53.791198, "distance_from_trend": 0.089398, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.988189, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.25487, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 33.633399, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.946844, "excess_performance": 0.990048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089398, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.269683, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.25487, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.892255, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.336334, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.532274, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.946844, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.777982, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41705997, "relative_activity": 1.122306, "balance": 0.777982, "dry_up": 1.252174, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.213865, "annualized_volatility": 1.044672, "from_high_reference": -0.363666, "from_low_reference": 1.566798 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.791198, "fair_value_reference": 25.988189, "structural_low": 30.049999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.021075, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.014521, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.231255, "worst_return": -0.122056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.03796, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.050525, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.601573, "worst_return": -0.209247, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.210665, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.206913, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.637436, "worst_return": -0.343213, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.371136, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076352, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060484, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.302175, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063747, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-13", 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[ 71.918667, 69.755618, 63.666343, 57.199831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 71.5, "volume": 66765471, "typical_volume": 39999273.8, "trend": 49.971532, "fair_value": 24.891891, "relative_strength": 70.568114, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.189734, "energy": 45.77912, "activity_lines": [ 72.855333, 70.416728, 64.987124, 58.677152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 61.900002, "volume": 48428503, "typical_volume": 40327849.05, "trend": 51.056198, "fair_value": 25.193633, "relative_strength": 53.995581, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.532569, "energy": 40.314019, "activity_lines": [ 70.133334, 69.04224, 65.244334, 59.44673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.799999, "volume": 46560034, "typical_volume": 37743038.55, "trend": 52.078198, "fair_value": 25.478865, "relative_strength": 44.596917, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.872414, "energy": 26.136219, "activity_lines": [ 66.554, 67.403519, 65.218734, 60.010846 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.599998, "volume": 49433495, "typical_volume": 37111940.7, "trend": 52.802865, "fair_value": 25.707854, "relative_strength": 20.379549, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.944046, "energy": 11.934795, "activity_lines": [ 60.308, 64.272336, 64.293325, 59.915479 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.599998, "volume": 41705997, "typical_volume": 37160983.1, "trend": 53.791198, "fair_value": 25.988189, "relative_strength": 33.633399, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.212639, "energy": 19.600319, "activity_lines": [ 58.006666, 62.92509, 64.102106, 60.289487 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }