{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15d58679-00b4-4808-bc4c-adf072330416", "symbol": "002437", "name": "HARBIN GLORIA PHARMACEUTICALS Co., LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.909, "architecture_energy": 18.516, "architecture_maturity": 50.338, "architecture_confidence": 77.802, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.46, "rotation_up": 29.43, "upward_expansion": 21.54, "deceleration": 41.7, "rotation_down": 23.88, "downward_expansion": 55.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.952667, 2.886727, 2.971095, 3.083527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.12, "trend_reference": 3.201333, "distance_from_trend": -0.025406, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.650064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.17733, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.435807, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.085044, "excess_performance": -0.092444, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025406, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039696, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.17733, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104809, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074358, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100919, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.085044, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.671882, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 495710787, "relative_activity": 1.202348, "balance": 0.671882, "dry_up": 1.090454, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081854, "annualized_volatility": 0.448945, "from_high_reference": -0.22, "from_low_reference": 0.283951 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.201333, "fair_value_reference": 2.650064, "structural_low": 2.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.012537, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.023375, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.207469, "worst_return": -0.162562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.024161, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.055105, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.196141, "worst_return": -0.108333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.007937, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.07955, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.135659, "worst_return": -0.058333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.94, "volume": 580146050, "typical_volume": 388977747.75, "trend": 3.222333, "fair_value": 2.634295, "relative_strength": -11.440752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.68896, "energy": 31.017899, "activity_lines": [ 2.902667, 2.850364, 3.041714, 3.141613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.76, "volume": 399722600, "typical_volume": 394350358.2, "trend": 3.208333, "fair_value": 2.638654, "relative_strength": -16.596478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.125941, "energy": 29.765317, "activity_lines": [ 2.886667, 2.828909, 3.001048, 3.111785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.85, "volume": 322733953, "typical_volume": 399683119.2, "trend": 3.199667, "fair_value": 2.643718, "relative_strength": -11.962617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.400798, "energy": 23.909146, "activity_lines": [ 2.888667, 2.830909, 2.971952, 3.088667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.12, "volume": 495710787, "typical_volume": 412285604.7, "trend": 3.201333, "fair_value": 2.650064, "relative_strength": -7.435807, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.909377, "energy": 18.515911, "activity_lines": [ 2.952667, 2.886727, 2.971095, 3.083527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }