{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15d9804a-6337-4101-b167-16dc94fb8ff7", "symbol": "ZWA", "name": "BMO Covered Call Dow Jones Industrial Average Hedged to CAD ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.405, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.889, "architecture_energy": 53.988, "architecture_maturity": 52.051, "architecture_confidence": 68.374, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.8, "rotation_up": 53.71, "upward_expansion": 81.17, "deceleration": 66.97, "rotation_down": 26.47, "downward_expansion": 7.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.540759, 28.457739, 28.076541, 27.707451 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.15, "trend_reference": 27.398479, "distance_from_trend": 0.063928, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.271414, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.201001, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.790817, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.050357, "excess_performance": -0.070064, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063928, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018952, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.201001, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051036, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037908, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035062, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050357, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.613821, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20800, "relative_activity": 2.65137, "balance": 2.613821, "dry_up": 1.555131, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019906, "annualized_volatility": 0.120917, "from_high_reference": -0.022131, "from_low_reference": 0.18125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.398479, "fair_value_reference": 24.271414, "structural_low": 25.104033, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.008305, "positive_rate": 0.589744, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": -0.00611, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.048208, "worst_return": -0.073886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.005917, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.015636, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.096635, "worst_return": -0.047154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.049459, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.023594, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.133171, "worst_return": -0.118535, "sufficient": true }, { 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27.307461, "fair_value": 24.167589, "relative_strength": -5.36908, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.21949, "energy": 55.405169, "activity_lines": [ 28.332341, 28.243434, 27.812968, 27.524657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.34, "volume": 8800, "typical_volume": 7370.0, "trend": 27.349228, "fair_value": 24.21723, "relative_strength": -3.601589, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.292918, "energy": 44.200994, "activity_lines": [ 28.308591, 28.2831, 27.911917, 27.591272 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.15, "volume": 20800, "typical_volume": 7845.0, "trend": 27.398479, "fair_value": 24.271414, "relative_strength": -3.790817, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.888821, "energy": 53.987574, "activity_lines": [ 28.540759, 28.457739, 28.076541, 27.707451 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }