{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15dc14f9-d920-492f-beab-993bd60099ff", "symbol": "000537", "name": "Green Development Electricity Group of Tianjin Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.741, "architecture_energy": 49.19, "architecture_maturity": 36.092, "architecture_confidence": 86.339, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.36, "rotation_up": 25.13, "upward_expansion": 12.9, "deceleration": 55.61, "rotation_down": 46.0, "downward_expansion": 72.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.540667, 7.589994, 8.438881, 8.884471 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.56, "trend_reference": 9.16478, "distance_from_trend": -0.175103, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.075682, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.167005, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.657123, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.104265, "excess_performance": -0.111665, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.175103, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022474, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.167005, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.29935, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186571, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104265, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.368072, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98257457, "relative_activity": 0.444314, "balance": 0.368072, "dry_up": 0.634061, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115422, "annualized_volatility": 0.63728, "from_high_reference": -0.436242, "from_low_reference": 0.116691 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.16478, "fair_value_reference": 9.075682, "structural_low": 6.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.005624, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.001688, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.66167, "worst_return": -0.138524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.020882, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.046557, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 1.961145, "worst_return": -0.143234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.001156, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.070773, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 2.973415, "worst_return": -0.16696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 7.47, "volume": 131987188, "typical_volume": 283385021.75, "trend": 9.241113, "fair_value": 9.166991, "relative_strength": -17.841974, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.197895, "energy": 79.801774, "activity_lines": [ 7.402195, 8.0622, 8.978359, 9.201504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.4, "volume": 216933012, "typical_volume": 285190140.8, "trend": 9.206447, "fair_value": 9.132556, "relative_strength": -18.422362, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.401285, "energy": 76.002893, "activity_lines": [ 7.372667, 7.822935, 8.768676, 9.082722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.76, "volume": 113697802, "typical_volume": 261492921.95, "trend": 9.186447, "fair_value": 9.102381, "relative_strength": -12.671818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.738552, "energy": 56.064292, "activity_lines": [ 7.500667, 7.703384, 8.602279, 8.989403 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.56, "volume": 98257457, "typical_volume": 221144139.95, "trend": 9.16478, "fair_value": 9.075682, "relative_strength": -18.657123, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.740538, "energy": 49.189536, "activity_lines": [ 7.540667, 7.589994, 8.438881, 8.884471 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }