{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15e2ed1c-afa8-4fce-9bfe-be85b19bb043", "symbol": "SMCRT", "name": "SmartCraft Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.681, "architecture_energy": 34.99, "architecture_maturity": 80.192, "architecture_confidence": 74.745, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.54, "rotation_up": 23.6, "upward_expansion": 3.22, "deceleration": 55.63, "rotation_down": 40.3, "downward_expansion": 69.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.313333, 15.414545, 15.716667, 16.13129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.5, "trend_reference": 17.202333, "distance_from_trend": -0.157091, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.291474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.403083, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.381826, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.262087, "excess_performance": -0.323581, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157091, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14358, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.403083, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098155, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.383818, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043361, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.262087, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.560625, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 267142, "relative_activity": 0.411076, "balance": 2.560625, "dry_up": 0.229649, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095597, "annualized_volatility": 0.458312, "from_high_reference": -0.493007, "from_low_reference": 0.090226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.202333, "fair_value_reference": 24.291474, "structural_low": 13.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.031795, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.031554, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.202765, "worst_return": -0.083969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.121632, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.080097, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.131579, "worst_return": -0.177419, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.144544, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.220334, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.026415, "worst_return": -0.262673, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070175, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.056604, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081851, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015504, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", 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"energy": 37.372042, "activity_lines": [ 15.52, 15.669455, 16.040048, 16.824753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.7, "volume": 174756, "typical_volume": 628944.1, "trend": 18.261, "fair_value": 24.396987, "relative_strength": -32.955065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.955236, "energy": 26.049361, "activity_lines": [ 15.622667, 15.622545, 15.975619, 16.637161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.7, "volume": 56003, "typical_volume": 631694.25, "trend": 17.914333, "fair_value": 24.364295, "relative_strength": -32.947849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.326268, "energy": 21.748397, "activity_lines": [ 15.698667, 15.602545, 15.91619, 16.471936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.74, "volume": 99060, "typical_volume": 636512.25, "trend": 17.605667, "fair_value": 24.331859, "relative_strength": -32.771838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.995224, "energy": 20.065221, "activity_lines": [ 15.728, 15.618909, 15.871524, 16.331656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.5, "volume": 267142, "typical_volume": 649861.0, "trend": 17.202333, "fair_value": 24.291474, "relative_strength": -38.381826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.680952, "energy": 34.989884, "activity_lines": [ 15.313333, 15.414545, 15.716667, 16.13129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }