{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15ede2d9-ae68-4d0d-96c3-d759d7754c88", "symbol": "603610", "name": "Keeson Technology Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.032, "architecture_energy": 71.933, "architecture_maturity": 14.626, "architecture_confidence": 79.263, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.58, "rotation_up": 11.25, "upward_expansion": 18.42, "deceleration": 34.28, "rotation_down": 73.16, "downward_expansion": 89.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.698667, 14.906909, 15.971255, 16.3597 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.1, "trend_reference": 16.924889, "distance_from_trend": -0.107823, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.798618, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.179815, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.881255, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.124878, "excess_performance": -0.081675, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107823, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062577, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.179815, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154462, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118813, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050591, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.124878, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.310176, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50489399, "relative_activity": 1.387259, "balance": 1.310176, "dry_up": 1.305827, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150394, "annualized_volatility": 0.649747, "from_high_reference": -0.305415, "from_low_reference": 0.257716 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.924889, "fair_value_reference": 12.798618, "structural_low": 12.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.023529, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 0.014093, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.431016, "worst_return": -0.136216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.024578, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.080492, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.777516, "worst_return": -0.128627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.060621, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022637, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.386441, "worst_return": -0.170773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 18.3, 18.176629, 17.561577, 17.61702 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.67, "volume": 64943562, "typical_volume": 33479242.65, "trend": 17.761402, "fair_value": 12.724189, "relative_strength": -15.609268, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.937103, "energy": 23.080395, "activity_lines": [ 17.092, 17.577797, 17.296729, 17.408581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.5, "volume": 39234017, "typical_volume": 34386441.65, "trend": 17.483844, "fair_value": 12.737347, "relative_strength": -23.599037, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.225637, "energy": 60.699251, "activity_lines": [ 15.437333, 16.622575, 16.840358, 17.069136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.53, "volume": 49735921, "typical_volume": 35490373.05, "trend": 17.270788, "fair_value": 12.750235, "relative_strength": -24.343621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.065238, "energy": 76.291229, "activity_lines": [ 14.114, 15.743743, 16.418038, 16.749533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.18, "volume": 50643349, "typical_volume": 35754784.75, "trend": 17.051616, "fair_value": 12.76833, "relative_strength": -20.778164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.611438, "energy": 78.128969, "activity_lines": [ 13.424, 15.103455, 16.087586, 16.485611 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.1, "volume": 50489399, "typical_volume": 36395074.25, "trend": 16.924889, "fair_value": 12.798618, "relative_strength": -11.881255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.031991, "energy": 71.933227, "activity_lines": [ 13.698667, 14.906909, 15.971255, 16.3597 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }