{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15efa702-e865-4887-b0b8-bd2b30eaa4e6", "symbol": "300015", "name": "Aier Eye Hospital Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.082, "architecture_energy": 22.76, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.151, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.78, "rotation_up": 28.23, "upward_expansion": 20.61, "deceleration": 46.91, "rotation_down": 21.05, "downward_expansion": 54.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.761155, 8.575112, 8.887242, 9.215295 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.82, "trend_reference": 9.722334, "distance_from_trend": -0.09281, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.582711, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.299038, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.348609, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.203252, "excess_performance": -0.210652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09281, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093525, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.299038, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079806, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213486, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06113, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203252, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.569705, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 393790809, "relative_activity": 1.099909, "balance": 0.569705, "dry_up": 1.416639, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070567, "annualized_volatility": 0.375738, "from_high_reference": -0.363397, "from_low_reference": 0.114874 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.722334, "fair_value_reference": 12.582711, "structural_low": 7.91121, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.023986, "positive_rate": 0.297297, "directional_follow_through": 0.675676, "median_excess_return": -0.021738, "regime_survival": 0.918919, "best_return": 0.540041, "worst_return": -0.190521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.121076, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.124928, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.284884, "worst_return": -0.247665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.232877, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.04845, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.334302, "worst_return": -0.333602, "sufficient": true 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12.766177, "relative_strength": -22.178576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.933331, "energy": 51.952055, "activity_lines": [ 8.38635, 8.463546, 9.042736, 9.424404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.46, "volume": 521851103, "typical_volume": 339688428.1, "trend": 9.857636, "fair_value": 12.709859, "relative_strength": -23.577495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.820324, "energy": 44.211978, "activity_lines": [ 8.440893, 8.415038, 8.952175, 9.328165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.08, "volume": 456264423, "typical_volume": 350454783.75, "trend": 9.791835, "fair_value": 12.649508, "relative_strength": -15.792541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.95661, "energy": 31.048644, "activity_lines": [ 8.683317, 8.517802, 8.929518, 9.277994 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.82, "volume": 393790809, "typical_volume": 358021228.9, "trend": 9.722334, "fair_value": 12.582711, "relative_strength": -21.348609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.082148, "energy": 22.759826, "activity_lines": [ 8.761155, 8.575112, 8.887242, 9.215295 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }