{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15f2bca2-5d5e-4676-a387-be44db55f923", "symbol": "AIXA", "name": "AIXTRON SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.484, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -6.421, "architecture_energy": 32.153, "architecture_maturity": 39.66, "architecture_confidence": 75.293, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.56, "rotation_up": 14.06, "upward_expansion": 44.85, "deceleration": 80.52, "rotation_down": 53.6, "downward_expansion": 41.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.258, 43.462, 46.909157, 44.378829 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 40.110001, "trend_reference": 39.22645, "distance_from_trend": 0.022524, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.482952, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.708048, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 27.999063, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.979677, "excess_performance": 0.915037, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022524, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.335464, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.708048, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.567273, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.279991, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.134471, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.979677, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.213326, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3538627, "relative_activity": 0.964132, "balance": 1.213326, "dry_up": 1.097948, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163844, "annualized_volatility": 0.599183, "from_high_reference": -0.354937, "from_low_reference": 2.44557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.22645, "fair_value_reference": 23.482952, "structural_low": 20.460303, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.029767, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.064556, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.118614, "worst_return": -0.227437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.066182, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.001434, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.339992, "worst_return": -0.359169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005177, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.062816, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.716547, "worst_return": -0.296381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.235046, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.517257, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.13898, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034548, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.11436, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", 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"typical_volume": 4041665.0, "trend": 37.237911, "fair_value": 23.397316, "relative_strength": 39.634782, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.06626, "energy": 24.6222, "activity_lines": [ 45.582666, 49.872909, 48.879581, 44.198503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.23, "volume": 2367071, "typical_volume": 3799997.85, "trend": 38.009572, "fair_value": 23.433481, "relative_strength": 38.569937, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.53965, "energy": 28.999935, "activity_lines": [ 42.704, 47.735272, 48.394761, 44.391541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.27, "volume": 6709258, "typical_volume": 3779637.1, "trend": 38.567472, "fair_value": 23.44507, "relative_strength": 20.737028, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -18.324492, "energy": 37.500336, "activity_lines": [ 39.812667, 45.091273, 47.478066, 44.279311 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.110001, "volume": 3538627, "typical_volume": 3670272.0, "trend": 39.22645, "fair_value": 23.482952, "relative_strength": 27.999063, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.421106, "energy": 32.153195, "activity_lines": [ 39.258, 43.462, 46.909157, 44.378829 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }