{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15f52c12-b772-4021-9ec5-96dbee06d278", "symbol": "SIMS", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P KENSHO INTELLIGENT STRUCTURES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.516, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.893, "architecture_energy": 17.666, "architecture_maturity": 15.202, "architecture_confidence": 77.85, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.21, "rotation_up": 24.04, "upward_expansion": 42.57, "deceleration": 79.2, "rotation_down": 37.61, "downward_expansion": 34.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.979513, 45.207463, 45.463714, 45.135897 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 46.211, "trend_reference": 44.849043, "distance_from_trend": 0.030368, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.852819, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.253934, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.278673, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018932, "excess_performance": -0.106693, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030368, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016085, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.253934, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035195, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062787, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06024, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018932, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.218141, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1104, "relative_activity": 0.356981, "balance": 1.218141, "dry_up": 0.409526, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032894, "annualized_volatility": 0.157073, "from_high_reference": -0.045413, "from_low_reference": 0.246205 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.849043, "fair_value_reference": 36.852819, "structural_low": 40.7704, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.006821, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.016297, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.108716, "worst_return": -0.141512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.041238, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.062056, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.166091, "worst_return": -0.190311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.061131, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.093488, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.055766, "worst_return": -0.216177, 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44.729114, "fair_value": 36.720228, "relative_strength": -7.241655, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.286635, "energy": 22.794863, "activity_lines": [ 44.72634, 45.310263, 45.39517, 45.067229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.3627, "volume": 260, "typical_volume": 3066.05, "trend": 44.780226, "fair_value": 36.77716, "relative_strength": -6.848707, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.560409, "energy": 23.971672, "activity_lines": [ 44.505927, 45.073895, 45.346586, 45.043589 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.211, "volume": 1104, "typical_volume": 3092.6, "trend": 44.849043, "fair_value": 36.852819, "relative_strength": -6.278673, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.893304, "energy": 17.666309, "activity_lines": [ 44.979513, 45.207463, 45.463714, 45.135897 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }