{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15f545e8-1055-47b9-9d0c-4f8e016ec9c1", "symbol": "KIRIINDUS", "name": "Kiri Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 78.917, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 9.913, "architecture_energy": 20.212, "architecture_maturity": 16.828, "architecture_confidence": 42.79, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.61, "rotation_up": 45.35, "upward_expansion": 35.28, "deceleration": 40.79, "rotation_down": 17.38, "downward_expansion": 43.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 413.176658, 403.597266, 401.572616, 403.356343 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 427.899994, "trend_reference": 415.343333, "distance_from_trend": 0.030232, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 449.191025, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.047399, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.429452, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.130726, "excess_performance": -0.087017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030232, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117492, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.047399, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008049, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094295, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073996, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130726, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.134817, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1631823, "relative_activity": 1.646477, "balance": 5.134817, "dry_up": 1.132411, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053212, "annualized_volatility": 0.326523, "from_high_reference": -0.450706, "from_low_reference": 0.281905 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 415.343333, "fair_value_reference": 449.191025, "structural_low": 333.799988, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.009289, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.004658, "regime_survival": 0.608696, "best_return": 0.41052, "worst_return": -0.247484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.02337, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.027342, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.41607, "worst_return": -0.461264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.006515, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036602, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.812117, "worst_return": 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-12.187382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.862117, "energy": 20.947184, "activity_lines": [ 395.429991, 394.608177, 396.61357, 403.318387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 414.649994, "volume": 709629, "typical_volume": 1024616.55, "trend": 417.625, "fair_value": 448.260897, "relative_strength": -12.036503, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.076403, "energy": 10.412295, "activity_lines": [ 403.019991, 398.045449, 398.53095, 402.69344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 427.899994, "volume": 1631823, "typical_volume": 991099.75, "trend": 415.343333, "fair_value": 449.191025, "relative_strength": -9.429452, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.912578, "energy": 20.211895, "activity_lines": [ 413.176658, 403.597266, 401.572616, 403.356343 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }