{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15f59fcc-3f28-44d2-b034-5770eff14e36", "symbol": "ASL", "name": "Andean Silver Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.136, "architecture_energy": 30.246, "architecture_maturity": 52.613, "architecture_confidence": 81.682, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.83, "rotation_up": 20.25, "upward_expansion": 9.69, "deceleration": 37.53, "rotation_down": 47.94, "downward_expansion": 76.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.957, 1.983273, 2.017048, 2.020172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.06, "trend_reference": 2.044333, "distance_from_trend": 0.007663, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.158718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.777827, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.911438, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.183908, "excess_performance": 0.120202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007663, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015491, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.777827, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322353, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009114, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222682, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.183908, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.637068, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4290658, "relative_activity": 1.273604, "balance": 1.637068, "dry_up": 0.891149, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146938, "annualized_volatility": 0.78612, "from_high_reference": -0.248175, "from_low_reference": 0.634921 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.044333, "fair_value_reference": 1.158718, "structural_low": 1.595, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.010417, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.019894, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.144105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.129541, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.137766, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.470588, "worst_return": -0.152838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.074236, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.059035, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.176471, "worst_return": -0.086207, "sufficient": false 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5.955677, "activity_lines": [ 2.073333, 2.069273, 2.057071, 2.065043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.02, "volume": 2657434, "typical_volume": 4456922.05, "trend": 2.0995, "fair_value": 1.116731, "relative_strength": 4.216154, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.912349, "energy": 10.113239, "activity_lines": [ 2.062667, 2.060182, 2.054571, 2.059032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.84, "volume": 2463877, "typical_volume": 4300502.85, "trend": 2.087167, "fair_value": 1.126603, "relative_strength": -5.415235, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.821463, "energy": 29.29445, "activity_lines": [ 1.986667, 2.017273, 2.03419, 2.04229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.865, "volume": 2529737, "typical_volume": 4119596.2, "trend": 2.067667, "fair_value": 1.136763, "relative_strength": -4.259794, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.187943, "energy": 36.003964, "activity_lines": [ 1.927, 1.984182, 2.019048, 2.027957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.94, "volume": 2724534, "typical_volume": 3889467.35, "trend": 2.053, "fair_value": 1.147436, "relative_strength": -3.299071, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.058486, "energy": 38.663713, "activity_lines": [ 1.924667, 1.972455, 2.012262, 2.01972 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.06, "volume": 4290658, "typical_volume": 3368910.85, "trend": 2.044333, "fair_value": 1.158718, "relative_strength": -0.911438, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.135555, "energy": 30.245509, "activity_lines": [ 1.957, 1.983273, 2.017048, 2.020172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }