{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15fadf02-e89d-48c9-9072-7d833231688b", "symbol": "002279", "name": "Beijing Join-Cheer Software Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.242, "architecture_energy": 32.079, "architecture_maturity": 86.69, "architecture_confidence": 90.622, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.76, "rotation_up": 27.66, "upward_expansion": 17.72, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 34.61, "downward_expansion": 67.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.406667, 6.221636, 6.585714, 7.064151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.83, "trend_reference": 7.771333, "distance_from_trend": -0.121129, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.656346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.026088, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.148217, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.333008, "excess_performance": -0.340408, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121129, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072891, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.026088, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190805, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141482, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002926, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333008, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.537819, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 357230694, "relative_activity": 2.79468, "balance": 0.537819, "dry_up": 2.151641, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093254, "annualized_volatility": 0.43346, "from_high_reference": -0.39611, "from_low_reference": 0.257827 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.771333, "fair_value_reference": 6.656346, "structural_low": 5.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.002924, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.012247, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.369955, "worst_return": -0.210873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019523, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.024414, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.248447, "worst_return": -0.117444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.027769, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.154779, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.354037, "worst_return": -0.165803, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-33.118494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.218279, "energy": 89.719687, "activity_lines": [ 5.906667, 6.313818, 6.958714, 7.47572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.66, "volume": 174673724, "typical_volume": 108844143.0, "trend": 7.902333, "fair_value": 6.654487, "relative_strength": -27.068596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.518481, "energy": 86.923074, "activity_lines": [ 5.762667, 6.125273, 6.782762, 7.326194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.76, "volume": 168138337, "typical_volume": 106116304.0, "trend": 7.839333, "fair_value": 6.65109, "relative_strength": -25.576458, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.03411, "energy": 69.746263, "activity_lines": [ 5.732, 6.0, 6.634238, 7.187978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.9, "volume": 400093539, "typical_volume": 117108485.9, "trend": 7.81, "fair_value": 6.653333, "relative_strength": -9.134127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.084939, "energy": 46.851826, "activity_lines": [ 6.122, 6.115455, 6.608857, 7.127376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.83, "volume": 357230694, "typical_volume": 127825249.25, "trend": 7.771333, "fair_value": 6.656346, "relative_strength": -14.148217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.241861, "energy": 32.079309, "activity_lines": [ 6.406667, 6.221636, 6.585714, 7.064151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }