{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15fe7071-7619-4dab-ab00-c8ed4ba9d2c6", "symbol": "NEX", "name": "Nexans S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -1.323, "architecture_energy": 23.243, "architecture_maturity": 37.146, "architecture_confidence": 72.388, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.84, "rotation_up": 14.82, "upward_expansion": 44.53, "deceleration": 73.6, "rotation_down": 45.93, "downward_expansion": 40.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 136.153333, 138.532728, 143.320008, 140.077877 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 141.199997, "trend_reference": 135.83339, "distance_from_trend": 0.039509, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 117.523511, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.201462, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.942101, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033635, "excess_performance": -0.140612, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039509, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051974, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.201462, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201411, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119421, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228309, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033635, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.325658, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2, "relative_activity": 0.027491, "balance": 2.325658, "dry_up": 0.006873, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061965, "annualized_volatility": 0.413438, "from_high_reference": -0.143665, "from_low_reference": 0.304706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 135.83339, "fair_value_reference": 117.523511, "structural_low": 108.223621, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.053079, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.03663, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.053079, "worst_return": -0.053079, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"relative_strength": -12.986493, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.705375, "energy": 23.073396, "activity_lines": [ 138.473335, 144.29224, 144.396049, 139.913846 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 132.199997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 93.15, "trend": 134.893159, "fair_value": 117.102953, "relative_strength": -15.954567, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.49486, "energy": 28.868624, "activity_lines": [ 135.146666, 141.238182, 143.775017, 139.761243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 133.800003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 80.65, "trend": 135.199022, "fair_value": 117.276881, "relative_strength": -14.499306, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.330571, "energy": 36.709954, "activity_lines": [ 134.173334, 138.985456, 143.236153, 139.690717 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 141.199997, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 72.75, "trend": 135.83339, "fair_value": 117.523511, "relative_strength": -11.942101, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.323235, "energy": 23.243225, "activity_lines": [ 136.153333, 138.532728, 143.320008, 140.077877 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }