{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15ff2b99-80c5-41da-9874-bdd7fa213e97", "symbol": "GFSN", "name": "GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.957, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -51.144, "architecture_energy": 58.025, "architecture_maturity": 62.301, "architecture_confidence": 63.015, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.43, "rotation_up": 14.0, "upward_expansion": 26.26, "deceleration": 71.94, "rotation_down": 78.03, "downward_expansion": 44.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 990.670003, 1139.275016, 1192.808714, 1118.357758 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 850.01001, "trend_reference": 1007.31309, "distance_from_trend": -0.156161, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 903.754783, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059468, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.279202, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.19767, "excess_performance": 0.252336, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156161, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.255807, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.059468, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.505233, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012792, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.574177, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.19767, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.186144, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1248, "relative_activity": 5.703839, "balance": 0.186144, "dry_up": 1.595064, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132888, "annualized_volatility": 0.709494, "from_high_reference": -0.457511, "from_low_reference": 0.404975 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1007.31309, "fair_value_reference": 903.754783, "structural_low": 709.719971, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.145522, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.110039, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.145522, "worst_return": 0.145522, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.13435, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.151763, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.13435, "worst_return": 1.13435, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.185766, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034395, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145522, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.343234, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.203264, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.276221, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.182683, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { 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24.911991, "activity_lines": [ 1249.458865, 1329.601068, 1235.779516, 1120.507324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1040.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 182.9, "trend": 987.776091, "fair_value": 903.208422, "relative_strength": 22.539621, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.938901, "energy": 30.243627, "activity_lines": [ 1156.332666, 1274.329997, 1228.896169, 1124.711124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1040.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 156.4, "trend": 1000.71109, "fair_value": 904.108367, "relative_strength": 21.052126, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.035497, "energy": 33.254525, "activity_lines": [ 1089.666667, 1222.984294, 1220.44006, 1128.080409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 850.01001, "volume": 1248, "typical_volume": 218.8, "trend": 1007.31309, "fair_value": 903.754783, "relative_strength": -1.279202, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.144044, "energy": 58.02503, "activity_lines": [ 990.670003, 1139.275016, 1192.808714, 1118.357758 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }