{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1602f104-d6a8-4252-af38-5c230c165df3", "symbol": "KSM-F51", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4D) FTSE 100", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.794, "architecture_energy": 63.048, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.559, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.74, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.34, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.97, 51.036364, 1301.005238, 2252.391828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 52.13, "trend_reference": 3347.153667, "distance_from_trend": -0.984426, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4221.510321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987651, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.844891, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.98981, "excess_performance": -1.018711, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984426, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325905, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987651, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.076517, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988449, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.735162, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.98981, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.526816, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41747, "relative_activity": 3.719689, "balance": 0.526816, "dry_up": 1.566302, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.468016, "annualized_volatility": 6.355811, "from_high_reference": -0.990327, "from_low_reference": 0.106559 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3347.153667, "fair_value_reference": 4221.510321, "structural_low": 47.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.035612, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.027436, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.085331, "worst_return": -0.072136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082376, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.067164, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.154204, "worst_return": -0.054962, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.090766, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.063106, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101891, "worst_return": 0.054517, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 50.768, 303.115455, 1831.462143, 2709.39086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.21, "volume": 19029, "typical_volume": 10225.3, "trend": 3512.282667, "fair_value": 4246.541538, "relative_strength": -98.848874, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.230694, "energy": 66.917046, "activity_lines": [ 51.684667, 134.439636, 1554.480857, 2475.627484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.13, "volume": 41747, "typical_volume": 11223.25, "trend": 3347.153667, "fair_value": 4221.510321, "relative_strength": -98.844891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.793671, "energy": 63.048362, "activity_lines": [ 51.97, 51.036364, 1301.005238, 2252.391828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }