{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "160324cf-50aa-46da-a2d0-7a69930a9526",
    "symbol": "CULTIBAB",
    "name": "Organizaci\u00f3n Cultiba, S.A.B. de C.V.",
    "exchange": "MEX",
    "country": "MX",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^MXX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -47.283,
    "architecture_energy": 68.748,
    "architecture_maturity": 8.177,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.184,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 15.28,
        "rotation_up": 16.33,
        "upward_expansion": 22.86,
        "deceleration": 45.94,
        "rotation_down": 75.91,
        "downward_expansion": 64.53
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        11.908251,
        12.147196,
        12.557481,
        12.579497
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 11.8,
    "trend_reference": 12.450051,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.052213,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 10.755482,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097115,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -1.982235,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.168317,
    "excess_performance": 0.222984,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.052213,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.037735,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.097115,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.138518,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.019822,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.068196,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.168317,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.482348,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 1.482348,
      "dry_up": 0.020634,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.029775,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.298855,
      "from_high_reference": -0.132353,
      "from_low_reference": 0.18
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 12.450051,
      "fair_value_reference": 10.755482,
      "structural_low": 10.1,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.050801,
        "positive_rate": 0.777778,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.222222,
        "median_excess_return": 0.04053,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.238614,
        "worst_return": -0.02513,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.071796,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": 0.091396,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.29604,
        "worst_return": -0.065421,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.001679,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.10628,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.275,
        "worst_return": -0.017857,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.01217,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013884,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.01875,
        "worst_return": 0.00559,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.045455,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.066667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.004555,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-10-17",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.05,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.01086,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.009091,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.188119,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.017059,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-03-06",
        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.034948,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-06-26",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.056,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 104612.9,
        "trend": 10.749037,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "energy": 30.709848,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 99673.2,
        "trend": 12.352925,
        "fair_value": 10.706476,
        "relative_strength": -0.771116,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "up",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 12.023761,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 98120.3,
        "trend": 12.384384,
        "fair_value": 10.715089,
        "relative_strength": 0.168448,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -45.718658,
        "energy": 52.789748,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 12.5,
        "volume": 2576,
        "typical_volume": 93565.25,
        "trend": 12.436717,
        "fair_value": 10.728552,
        "relative_strength": 3.94833,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -23.494942,
        "energy": 42.292553,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.360849,
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          12.844074,
          12.705744
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 11.8,
        "volume": 1423,
        "typical_volume": 90699.35,
        "trend": 12.463384,
        "fair_value": 10.738225,
        "relative_strength": -1.424742,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -45.324928,
        "energy": 52.620129,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.13456,
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          12.744781,
          12.664665
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 11.8,
        "volume": 3341,
        "typical_volume": 90576.8,
        "trend": 12.456717,
        "fair_value": 10.747898,
        "relative_strength": -2.117405,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -40.697656,
        "energy": 71.254228,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.984752,
          12.291587,
          12.648869,
          12.621866
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 11.8,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 88930.0,
        "trend": 12.450051,
        "fair_value": 10.755482,
        "relative_strength": -1.982235,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -47.282748,
        "energy": 68.747803,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.908251,
          12.147196,
          12.557481,
          12.579497
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}