{ "ticker": { "uuid": "160caf7d-9735-4326-a681-d7d9293e36e1", "symbol": "6872", "name": "NaviFUS Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.161, "architecture_energy": 75.852, "architecture_maturity": 61.59, "architecture_confidence": 87.493, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.6, "rotation_up": 11.53, "upward_expansion": 16.86, "deceleration": 37.86, "rotation_down": 77.49, "downward_expansion": 94.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.413333, 15.897273, 16.607857, 17.016774 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 15.15, "trend_reference": 17.716666, "distance_from_trend": -0.144873, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.638345, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.385105, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.907431, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.227041, "excess_performance": -0.668413, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144873, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070479, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.385105, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098407, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.439074, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034548, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.227041, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.193978, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 97115, "relative_activity": 0.462891, "balance": 0.193978, "dry_up": 0.610895, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069561, "annualized_volatility": 0.288174, "from_high_reference": -0.367432, "from_low_reference": 0.01 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.716666, "fair_value_reference": 24.638345, "structural_low": 15.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.0253, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.056309, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.131783, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.100775, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.219638, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.0075, "worst_return": -0.15528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.141842, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.30407, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.012255, "worst_return": -0.271429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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24.79347, "relative_strength": -41.054594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.519847, "energy": 73.405664, "activity_lines": [ 15.95, 16.388182, 16.987619, 17.37 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.3, "volume": 116450, "typical_volume": 211245.5, "trend": 17.883333, "fair_value": 24.714011, "relative_strength": -42.178032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.162181, "energy": 77.743373, "activity_lines": [ 15.653333, 16.137273, 16.8, 17.193118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 15.15, "volume": 97115, "typical_volume": 209800.85, "trend": 17.716666, "fair_value": 24.638345, "relative_strength": -43.907431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.160927, "energy": 75.852046, "activity_lines": [ 15.413333, 15.897273, 16.607857, 17.016774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }