{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1610480a-148d-4f9a-88c6-15a30b0bccac", "symbol": "HTLD", "name": "Heartland Express Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.669, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -7.454, "architecture_energy": 21.084, "architecture_maturity": 60.472, "architecture_confidence": 89.587, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.84, "rotation_up": 16.75, "upward_expansion": 48.94, "deceleration": 84.99, "rotation_down": 43.01, "downward_expansion": 29.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.269333, 14.03519, 14.10887, 13.443657 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.34, "trend_reference": 12.571234, "distance_from_trend": -0.018394, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.228324, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.099006, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.948233, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.077962, "excess_performance": -0.109492, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018394, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.185986, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.099006, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067057, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009482, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168028, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077962, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.664102, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3128722, "relative_activity": 1.156555, "balance": 1.664102, "dry_up": 1.305993, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102873, "annualized_volatility": 0.449736, "from_high_reference": -0.257177, "from_low_reference": 0.771422 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.571234, "fair_value_reference": 11.228324, "structural_low": 9.331685, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.043909, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.050642, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.207547, "worst_return": -0.061309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.089657, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.078969, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.497265, "worst_return": -0.035343, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.022198, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.087233, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119119, "worst_return": -0.163516, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094576, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.193654, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091943, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.242464, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021146, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"close": 14.28, "volume": 3505188, "typical_volume": 2567682.95, "trend": 12.405285, "fair_value": 11.267139, "relative_strength": 24.572808, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.632686, "energy": 34.602495, "activity_lines": [ 14.844667, 14.999067, 14.31512, 13.46584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.23, "volume": 4128811, "typical_volume": 2660332.8, "trend": 12.508549, "fair_value": 11.246876, "relative_strength": 5.594932, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.590142, "energy": 15.797556, "activity_lines": [ 13.929333, 14.488034, 14.21323, 13.454531 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.34, "volume": 3128722, "typical_volume": 2705207.35, "trend": 12.571234, "fair_value": 11.228324, "relative_strength": 0.948233, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.454011, "energy": 21.084457, "activity_lines": [ 13.269333, 14.03519, 14.10887, 13.443657 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }