{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16127704-a25b-4ff5-9df7-400c22a6fe11", "symbol": "GNTA", "name": "Genenta Science SpA ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.684, "architecture_energy": 19.235, "architecture_maturity": 58.743, "architecture_confidence": 77.52, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.43, "rotation_up": 22.56, "upward_expansion": 53.01, "deceleration": 93.6, "rotation_down": 26.1, "downward_expansion": 19.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.455333, 1.557091, 1.385924, 1.238795 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.3, "trend_reference": 1.108677, "distance_from_trend": 0.172569, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.437973, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.62187, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.048803, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.775956, "excess_performance": 0.588503, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.172569, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018589, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.62187, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.213472, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.370488, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.416025, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.775956, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 17.910893, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 278316, "relative_activity": 0.058703, "balance": 17.910893, "dry_up": 0.084229, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.333396, "annualized_volatility": 1.47868, "from_high_reference": -0.87, "from_low_reference": 1.363636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.108677, "fair_value_reference": 3.437973, "structural_low": 0.55, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.043144, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.020996, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.02475, "worst_return": -0.061538, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.2375, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.274616, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.225, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.128558, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.180565, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.1225, "worst_return": -0.134615, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.0375, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.044666, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0375, "worst_return": 0.0375, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025948, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043779, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107955, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044737, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005263, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.227749, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110769, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.585484, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.269565, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.029094, "energy": 43.168298, "activity_lines": [ 1.614, 1.598145, 1.288089, 1.170947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.59, "volume": 342468, "typical_volume": 4739626.6, "trend": 1.11001, "fair_value": 3.490729, "relative_strength": -23.502484, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.569571, "energy": 32.544765, "activity_lines": [ 1.593333, 1.625273, 1.336367, 1.202194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.49, "volume": 370526, "typical_volume": 4750407.95, "trend": 1.112677, "fair_value": 3.466178, "relative_strength": -26.491976, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.76454, "energy": 25.300556, "activity_lines": [ 1.545333, 1.616727, 1.371645, 1.226709 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.3, "volume": 278316, "typical_volume": 4741125.75, "trend": 1.108677, "fair_value": 3.437973, "relative_strength": -37.048803, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.683862, "energy": 19.235475, "activity_lines": [ 1.455333, 1.557091, 1.385924, 1.238795 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }