{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1613eba3-28c8-4d09-96ca-9cf4c7e9e2e1", "symbol": "PNOV", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF - November", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.094, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.146, "architecture_energy": 65.338, "architecture_maturity": 41.05, "architecture_confidence": 79.969, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.56, "rotation_up": 63.19, "upward_expansion": 86.64, "deceleration": 51.76, "rotation_down": 24.14, "downward_expansion": 10.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.750667, 44.535273, 44.188853, 43.63877 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 45.28, "trend_reference": 43.01222, "distance_from_trend": 0.052724, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.333996, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.181197, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.479576, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.074514, "excess_performance": -0.051111, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052724, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022068, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.181197, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012181, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044796, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006469, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074514, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.663035, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104772, "relative_activity": 0.473582, "balance": 1.663035, "dry_up": 0.983629, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013911, "annualized_volatility": 0.074991, "from_high_reference": -0.018426, "from_low_reference": 0.129459 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.01222, "fair_value_reference": 38.333996, "structural_low": 40.09, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.005548, "positive_rate": 0.681818, "directional_follow_through": 0.681818, "median_excess_return": -0.005373, "regime_survival": 0.840909, "best_return": 0.032349, "worst_return": -0.030564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.01936, "positive_rate": 0.8125, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.009394, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.039364, "worst_return": -0.021875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.045408, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.047338, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.060616, "worst_return": -0.060684, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 42.652867, "fair_value": 38.068547, "relative_strength": -4.036932, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.001904, "energy": 60.881924, "activity_lines": [ 44.321333, 44.206378, 43.625666, 43.156822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.39, "volume": 602657, "typical_volume": 243524.7, "trend": 42.741533, "fair_value": 38.132842, "relative_strength": -3.00702, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.061736, "energy": 60.890685, "activity_lines": [ 44.372667, 44.257007, 43.761005, 43.268895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.27, "volume": 81222, "typical_volume": 239370.5, "trend": 42.8162, "fair_value": 38.195085, "relative_strength": -2.581232, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.132312, "energy": 58.020232, "activity_lines": [ 44.360667, 44.274545, 43.873811, 43.367506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.65, "volume": 81794, "typical_volume": 223270.2, "trend": 42.9092, "fair_value": 38.262329, "relative_strength": -2.662092, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.748898, "energy": 58.503403, "activity_lines": [ 44.476667, 44.353273, 44.009666, 43.485815 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.28, "volume": 104772, "typical_volume": 221233.05, "trend": 43.01222, "fair_value": 38.333996, "relative_strength": -4.479576, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.145759, "energy": 65.33798, "activity_lines": [ 44.750667, 44.535273, 44.188853, 43.63877 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }