{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1614a99b-8651-433a-972a-1bb6f56289b3", "symbol": "ODFB", "name": "Odfjell SE", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.427, "architecture_energy": 18.552, "architecture_maturity": 23.218, "architecture_confidence": 61.912, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.15, "rotation_up": 31.17, "upward_expansion": 18.68, "deceleration": 42.37, "rotation_down": 28.46, "downward_expansion": 55.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 110.439998, 109.879999, 109.973333, 111.238539 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 108.199997, "trend_reference": 113.621687, "distance_from_trend": -0.047717, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 104.153709, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038849, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.634181, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.098302, "excess_performance": -0.223295, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047717, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021664, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038849, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066179, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156342, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011576, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098302, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.58803, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42431, "relative_activity": 0.857311, "balance": 0.58803, "dry_up": 1.00819, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050903, "annualized_volatility": 0.209482, "from_high_reference": -0.162613, "from_low_reference": 0.062868 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 113.621687, "fair_value_reference": 104.153709, "structural_low": 101.800003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.028446, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.003999, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.090278, "worst_return": -0.223776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.057692, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.076723, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133333, "worst_return": -0.15035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.294188, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.252981, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.442308, "worst_return": -0.349136, "sufficient": false 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108.807272, 110.122857, 111.88996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.400002, "volume": 75192, "typical_volume": 56372.35, "trend": 114.354206, "fair_value": 103.557554, "relative_strength": -10.855527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.026476, "energy": 11.598485, "activity_lines": [ 110.933332, 109.898181, 110.397143, 111.891616 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 110.199997, "volume": 36014, "typical_volume": 52199.35, "trend": 114.168475, "fair_value": 103.861149, "relative_strength": -14.184717, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.043026, "energy": 16.954638, "activity_lines": [ 111.079998, 110.098181, 110.275238, 111.623602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 108.199997, "volume": 42431, "typical_volume": 49493.15, "trend": 113.621687, "fair_value": 104.153709, "relative_strength": -15.634181, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.427498, "energy": 18.552352, "activity_lines": [ 110.439998, 109.879999, 109.973333, 111.238539 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }