{ "ticker": { "uuid": "161788b8-ba16-453f-818a-fe076177ea49", "symbol": "EEA", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Eurozone Capped UCITS ETF Cap", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.371, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.779, "architecture_energy": 38.777, "architecture_maturity": 3.094, "architecture_confidence": 47.583, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.36, "rotation_up": 56.91, "upward_expansion": 53.97, "deceleration": 28.35, "rotation_down": 23.36, "downward_expansion": 16.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.287333, 9.242491, 9.184852, 9.179271 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.312, "trend_reference": 9.186333, "distance_from_trend": 0.01368, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.533712, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091202, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.981738, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.007901, "excess_performance": -0.16299, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01368, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007458, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.091202, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009469, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129817, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004005, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007901, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.044739, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1937, "relative_activity": 0.37818, "balance": 3.044739, "dry_up": 1.517503, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017455, "annualized_volatility": 0.244448, "from_high_reference": -0.073433, "from_low_reference": 0.111615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.186333, "fair_value_reference": 8.533712, "structural_low": 8.377, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.046158, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.044001, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.035062, "worst_return": -0.097087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005421, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.055891, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15853, "worst_return": -0.124434, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.026098, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.117936, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083911, "worst_return": -0.116595, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007048, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022893, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004733, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041764, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035902, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032728, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"trend": 9.1469, "fair_value": 8.480692, "relative_strength": -14.513, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.067175, "energy": 23.499311, "activity_lines": [ 9.2016, 9.1454, 9.125581, 9.151181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.121, "volume": 9729, "typical_volume": 4208.3, "trend": 9.155167, "fair_value": 8.49234, "relative_strength": -13.02107, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.696108, "energy": 18.55328, "activity_lines": [ 9.188933, 9.146509, 9.122671, 9.14951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.253, "volume": 19264, "typical_volume": 5064.15, "trend": 9.168433, "fair_value": 8.504994, "relative_strength": -11.225046, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.238998, "energy": 28.677083, "activity_lines": [ 9.2118, 9.17, 9.136852, 9.155822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.404, "volume": 160, "typical_volume": 5028.4, "trend": 9.1841, "fair_value": 8.519647, "relative_strength": -9.985311, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.945184, "energy": 35.535651, "activity_lines": [ 9.268067, 9.217036, 9.166457, 9.171019 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.312, "volume": 1937, "typical_volume": 5121.9, "trend": 9.186333, "fair_value": 8.533712, "relative_strength": -12.981738, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.779298, "energy": 38.777188, "activity_lines": [ 9.287333, 9.242491, 9.184852, 9.179271 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }