{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1619682f-6476-4f0b-abc9-e66f9ee7f91d", "symbol": "002256", "name": "ZETTA Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.28, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.983, "architecture_energy": 72.237, "architecture_maturity": 13.388, "architecture_confidence": 87.194, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.21, "rotation_up": 10.84, "upward_expansion": 16.37, "deceleration": 38.5, "rotation_down": 71.15, "downward_expansion": 89.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.279333, 3.418, 3.800952, 3.901742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.38, "trend_reference": 3.941, "distance_from_trend": -0.14235, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.696346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.253548, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.088257, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.058496, "excess_performance": -0.065896, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.14235, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00348, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.253548, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.800722, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090883, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.43688, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.058496, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.295448, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 237389726, "relative_activity": 0.431141, "balance": 0.295448, "dry_up": 0.562857, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11766, "annualized_volatility": 0.487153, "from_high_reference": -0.412174, "from_low_reference": 0.502222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.941, "fair_value_reference": 2.696346, "structural_low": 2.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.028957, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.020551, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.396648, "worst_return": -0.265244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.032993, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022629, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.468208, "worst_return": -0.218341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020997, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.040384, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.404624, "worst_return": -0.219512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101215, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012931, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081897, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111628, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04329, 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3.925455, 4.136476, 4.091591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.11, "volume": 260480072, "typical_volume": 620657158.65, "trend": 3.976667, "fair_value": 2.679615, "relative_strength": -12.142155, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.165202, "energy": 69.554502, "activity_lines": [ 3.419333, 3.725091, 4.03581, 4.033957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.17, "volume": 448501507, "typical_volume": 623474436.85, "trend": 3.958, "fair_value": 2.684936, "relative_strength": -11.01642, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.976194, "energy": 71.860127, "activity_lines": [ 3.29, 3.575091, 3.944286, 3.981914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.28, "volume": 293283460, "typical_volume": 602114169.3, "trend": 3.944667, "fair_value": 2.691282, "relative_strength": -6.81709, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.633951, "energy": 75.559792, "activity_lines": [ 3.254, 3.475636, 3.866238, 3.938172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.38, "volume": 237389726, "typical_volume": 550607849.15, "trend": 3.941, "fair_value": 2.696346, "relative_strength": -9.088257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.982748, "energy": 72.236818, "activity_lines": [ 3.279333, 3.418, 3.800952, 3.901742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }