{ "ticker": { "uuid": "161d8648-6a80-495b-9148-d00104080bc2", "symbol": "JELD", "name": "Jeld-Wen Holding Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.05, "architecture_energy": 14.517, "architecture_maturity": 28.259, "architecture_confidence": 64.662, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.86, "rotation_up": 20.99, "upward_expansion": 14.46, "deceleration": 61.23, "rotation_down": 41.06, "downward_expansion": 64.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.465333, 1.447818, 1.518857, 1.554452 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.89, "trend_reference": 1.746667, "distance_from_trend": 0.082061, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.174423, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.793992, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -39.899335, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.354949, "excess_performance": -0.480574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082061, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164807, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.793992, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042394, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.398993, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16226, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.354949, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.749463, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15288263, "relative_activity": 1.675258, "balance": 0.749463, "dry_up": 0.842724, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.188685, "annualized_volatility": 1.094529, "from_high_reference": -0.729032, "from_low_reference": 1.043243 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.746667, "fair_value_reference": 9.174423, "structural_low": 0.925, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.017001, "positive_rate": 0.447368, "directional_follow_through": 0.552632, "median_excess_return": -0.009836, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.37619, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.130463, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.091961, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.646597, "worst_return": -0.492625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.274384, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.363342, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.584518, "worst_return": -0.629126, 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1.311333, 1.501636, 1.517048, 1.621032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.1, "volume": 5282715, "typical_volume": 9010297.55, "trend": 1.810667, "fair_value": 9.373462, "relative_strength": -65.24815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.665631, "energy": 69.688185, "activity_lines": [ 1.208667, 1.41, 1.479952, 1.572258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.42, "volume": 6089531, "typical_volume": 8857467.5, "trend": 1.775333, "fair_value": 9.267244, "relative_strength": -54.508663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.119234, "energy": 59.328539, "activity_lines": [ 1.258, 1.383273, 1.476857, 1.547054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.89, "volume": 15288263, "typical_volume": 9125916.25, "trend": 1.746667, "fair_value": 9.174423, "relative_strength": -39.899335, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.050092, "energy": 14.517223, "activity_lines": [ 1.465333, 1.447818, 1.518857, 1.554452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }