{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1628f711-3aa5-48a2-ba0c-e955ca597ccf", "symbol": "SEC", "name": "Spheria Emerging Companies Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.702, "architecture_energy": 22.239, "architecture_maturity": 44.906, "architecture_confidence": 94.759, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.11, "rotation_up": 23.76, "upward_expansion": 5.69, "deceleration": 45.54, "rotation_down": 46.89, "downward_expansion": 74.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.338457, 2.343989, 2.349569, 2.363616 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.33, "trend_reference": 2.409249, "distance_from_trend": -0.032894, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.128036, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.094907, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.687673, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.081705, "excess_performance": -0.145411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032894, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040184, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.094907, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075374, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106877, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087914, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.081705, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.514454, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 267573, "relative_activity": 1.422465, "balance": 0.514454, "dry_up": 1.147374, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057726, "annualized_volatility": 0.319283, "from_high_reference": -0.179102, "from_low_reference": 0.136076 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.409249, "fair_value_reference": 2.128036, "structural_low": 2.050919, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.006266, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000194, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.104, "worst_return": -0.122066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.044368, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.034887, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.237345, "worst_return": -0.090022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.070799, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.089357, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.254142, "worst_return": -0.117379, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.606518, "energy": 18.409663, "activity_lines": [ 2.354925, 2.348708, 2.354488, 2.383002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.3, "volume": 193423, "typical_volume": 189974.75, "trend": 2.433146, "fair_value": 2.119146, "relative_strength": -7.108467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.53827, "energy": 23.517535, "activity_lines": [ 2.333963, 2.340914, 2.349203, 2.373585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.37, "volume": 200582, "typical_volume": 184173.4, "trend": 2.421383, "fair_value": 2.123705, "relative_strength": -6.406658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.321967, "energy": 17.60702, "activity_lines": [ 2.344242, 2.346734, 2.3514, 2.369511 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.33, "volume": 267573, "typical_volume": 188105.15, "trend": 2.409249, "fair_value": 2.128036, "relative_strength": -10.687673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.702466, "energy": 22.239375, "activity_lines": [ 2.338457, 2.343989, 2.349569, 2.363616 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }