{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1629d3df-d331-475b-b8e4-4addeba3fd2c", "symbol": "SAA", "name": "M&C Saatchi plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 82.548, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.933, "architecture_energy": 37.73, "architecture_maturity": 19.396, "architecture_confidence": 67.672, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.35, "rotation_up": 44.35, "upward_expansion": 75.91, "deceleration": 61.22, "rotation_down": 25.1, "downward_expansion": 4.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 139.733333, 139.081818, 137.883333, 134.607527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 140.0, "trend_reference": 131.45, "distance_from_trend": 0.065044, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 162.213498, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.13694, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.876268, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.089494, "excess_performance": 0.023216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065044, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026285, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.13694, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00148, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058763, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048966, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089494, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.535963, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 412553, "relative_activity": 0.414921, "balance": 4.535963, "dry_up": 0.479297, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040697, "annualized_volatility": 0.234107, "from_high_reference": -0.290798, "from_low_reference": 0.393035 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 131.45, "fair_value_reference": 162.213498, "structural_low": 110.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.010714, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.003027, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.230769, "worst_return": -0.175101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.019178, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.009447, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.152482, "worst_return": -0.264865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.14943, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.143196, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.304965, "worst_return": -0.324324, 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138.881818, 133.783333, 131.619355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 139.0, "volume": 738827, "typical_volume": 1072541.05, "trend": 130.083333, "fair_value": 162.254421, "relative_strength": -6.980402, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.191417, "energy": 22.991729, "activity_lines": [ 137.566667, 138.845455, 134.657143, 132.229032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 142.0, "volume": 323362, "typical_volume": 1058670.75, "trend": 130.7, "fair_value": 162.193723, "relative_strength": -4.786025, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.535453, "energy": 32.861898, "activity_lines": [ 138.966667, 139.245455, 135.757143, 132.997849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 139.0, "volume": 623598, "typical_volume": 1049362.9, "trend": 131.066667, "fair_value": 162.136224, "relative_strength": -7.007043, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.209321, "energy": 36.65769, "activity_lines": [ 139.433333, 139.081818, 136.495238, 133.533333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 139.0, "volume": 546731, "typical_volume": 1015020.65, "trend": 131.283333, "fair_value": 162.162043, "relative_strength": -7.259842, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.621795, "energy": 36.442233, "activity_lines": [ 139.566667, 138.954545, 137.180952, 134.045161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 140.0, "volume": 412553, "typical_volume": 994292.2, "trend": 131.45, "fair_value": 162.213498, "relative_strength": -5.876268, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.933264, "energy": 37.72979, "activity_lines": [ 139.733333, 139.081818, 137.883333, 134.607527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }