{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "162ad53d-f343-40a4-b0f6-2a851847b833",
    "symbol": "HEIDELBERG",
    "name": "HeidelbergCement India Limited",
    "exchange": "NSI",
    "country": "IN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^NSEI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 90.283,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -12.502,
    "architecture_energy": 5.194,
    "architecture_maturity": 17.301,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.213,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 66.58,
        "rotation_up": 25.19,
        "upward_expansion": 32.7,
        "deceleration": 38.48,
        "rotation_down": 28.86,
        "downward_expansion": 41.04
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        155.618003,
        155.382366,
        155.379859,
        155.57899
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 156.270004,
    "trend_reference": 157.435,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.0074,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 189.183538,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.173977,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -8.332959,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.102515,
    "excess_performance": -0.058806,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.0074,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.048054,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.173977,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.029209,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.08333,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000151,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.102515,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.795781,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 240558,
      "relative_activity": 0.616011,
      "balance": 0.795781,
      "dry_up": 1.021741,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.04096,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.203786,
      "from_high_reference": -0.281953,
      "from_low_reference": 0.1482
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 157.435,
      "fair_value_reference": 189.183538,
      "structural_low": 136.100006,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": -0.001878,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006733,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.065036,
        "worst_return": -0.078252,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.047927,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001442,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.085799,
        "worst_return": -0.112754,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.069937,
        "positive_rate": 0.2,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": -0.093615,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.15568,
        "worst_return": -0.145669,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.119752,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.168333,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.338994,
        "worst_return": -0.198065,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-08-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.032892,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-23",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.002849,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.032208,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.013754,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.074105,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0591,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.007272,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.034563,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-10-17",
        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.00486,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-10-31",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.064848,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2026-05-22",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.099065,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-05-29",
        "end": "2026-06-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.053718,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-06-19",
        "end": "2026-07-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.023171,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-10",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.008124,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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          148.891997,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "close": 159.759995,
        "volume": 361272,
        "typical_volume": 380409.35,
        "trend": 173.452998,
        "fair_value": 189.353715,
        "relative_strength": -10.985794,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 45.577514,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "fair_value": 189.360348,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 369658.65,
        "trend": 170.461665,
        "fair_value": 189.390737,
        "relative_strength": -9.654337,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "energy": 23.478505,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 162.009995,
        "volume": 376983,
        "typical_volume": 375598.5,
        "trend": 169.201665,
        "fair_value": 189.434006,
        "relative_strength": -8.317837,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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        "direction": -30.02398,
        "energy": 24.473227,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 153.220001,
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        "typical_volume": 370682.9,
        "trend": 167.861332,
        "fair_value": 189.433629,
        "relative_strength": -11.049682,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -38.781496,
        "energy": 21.28557,
        "activity_lines": [
          157.573999,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 158.970001,
        "volume": 204894,
        "typical_volume": 368797.1,
        "trend": 166.681332,
        "fair_value": 189.461741,
        "relative_strength": -7.731715,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -30.488765,
        "energy": 16.67451,
        "activity_lines": [
          157.868667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 157.490005,
        "volume": 1487872,
        "typical_volume": 427609.35,
        "trend": 165.382332,
        "fair_value": 189.490179,
        "relative_strength": -7.671393,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -21.132201,
        "energy": 10.540123,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 150.990005,
        "volume": 98572,
        "typical_volume": 423453.6,
        "trend": 164.134332,
        "fair_value": 189.440581,
        "relative_strength": -10.538261,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -47.827236,
        "energy": 27.254337,
        "activity_lines": [
          155.351336,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 149.029999,
        "volume": 110342,
        "typical_volume": 416274.75,
        "trend": 162.873332,
        "fair_value": 189.385347,
        "relative_strength": -12.36378,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 35.598975,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 412029.2,
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        "fair_value": 189.369449,
        "relative_strength": -11.334287,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "energy": 40.072012,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 0,
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        "fair_value": 189.369931,
        "relative_strength": -9.919856,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -49.419215,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 363459.55,
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        "fair_value": 189.35248,
        "relative_strength": -9.460238,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -46.018159,
        "energy": 27.20708,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 157.550003,
        "volume": 958192,
        "typical_volume": 399013.35,
        "trend": 159.688333,
        "fair_value": 189.344067,
        "relative_strength": -8.098383,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -24.958071,
        "energy": 11.496422,
        "activity_lines": [
          155.494001,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 157.690002,
        "volume": 484404,
        "typical_volume": 400444.1,
        "trend": 159.220999,
        "fair_value": 189.35185,
        "relative_strength": -8.064041,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -9.304879,
        "energy": 10.864489,
        "activity_lines": [
          156.683335,
          155.260729,
          155.15681,
          156.248688
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 156.410004,
        "volume": 303523,
        "typical_volume": 397707.7,
        "trend": 158.647333,
        "fair_value": 189.345655,
        "relative_strength": -6.200534,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -10.854602,
        "energy": 12.310889,
        "activity_lines": [
          156.86867,
          155.53582,
          155.358144,
          156.067334
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 152.690002,
        "volume": 567511,
        "typical_volume": 394976.7,
        "trend": 157.882,
        "fair_value": 189.241432,
        "relative_strength": -10.242006,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -33.657649,
        "energy": 14.985728,
        "activity_lines": [
          155.572003,
          155.076547,
          155.20243,
          155.68299
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 156.270004,
        "volume": 240558,
        "typical_volume": 390509.1,
        "trend": 157.435,
        "fair_value": 189.183538,
        "relative_strength": -8.332959,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -12.501622,
        "energy": 5.194414,
        "activity_lines": [
          155.618003,
          155.382366,
          155.379859,
          155.57899
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}