{ "ticker": { "uuid": "162cdf5b-5762-41f3-a94e-04b207fc14f2", "symbol": "MGOV", "name": "FIRST TR EXCHANGE TRADED FD IV INTERMEDIATE GOVERNMENT OPPORTUNITIES ET", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 56.629, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.82, "architecture_energy": 62.938, "architecture_maturity": 4.871, "architecture_confidence": 86.483, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.53, "rotation_up": 11.01, "upward_expansion": 13.96, "deceleration": 37.72, "rotation_down": 69.34, "downward_expansion": 89.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.866722, 19.94247, 19.999807, 20.052085 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 19.9002, "trend_reference": 20.119334, "distance_from_trend": -0.010892, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.902948, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052756, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.562905, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016245, "excess_performance": -0.14187, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010892, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000896, "read": 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153002.5, "trend": 20.135447, "fair_value": 18.872216, "relative_strength": -8.425494, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.479721, "energy": 57.411595, "activity_lines": [ 19.955073, 20.00738, 20.042684, 20.09025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.7704, "volume": 93730, "typical_volume": 149867.05, "trend": 20.126717, "fair_value": 18.886802, "relative_strength": -9.355295, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.786324, "energy": 67.429295, "activity_lines": [ 19.874812, 19.961596, 20.014128, 20.066699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.9002, "volume": 69814, "typical_volume": 148737.75, "trend": 20.119334, "fair_value": 18.902948, "relative_strength": -11.562905, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.820058, "energy": 62.938484, "activity_lines": [ 19.866722, 19.94247, 19.999807, 20.052085 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }