{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16344955-4339-4c7c-b6e7-fc5a1586d608", "symbol": "3432", "name": "CSOP MSCI HK China Connect Select ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 75.944, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 7.85, "architecture_energy": 28.399, "architecture_maturity": 96.201, "architecture_confidence": 61.688, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.41, "rotation_up": 49.68, "upward_expansion": 28.7, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 12.02, "downward_expansion": 49.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 102.117999, 99.496909, 99.633952, 101.261462 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 105.5, "trend_reference": 103.939333, "distance_from_trend": 0.015015, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 98.813685, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.067666, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.842658, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.056772, "excess_performance": -0.023191, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015015, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034198, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.067666, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004881, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018427, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050556, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056772, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.030726, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25600, "relative_activity": 1.051702, "balance": 1.030726, "dry_up": 2.308711, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029923, "annualized_volatility": 0.155412, "from_high_reference": -0.12339, "from_low_reference": 0.154267 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 103.939333, "fair_value_reference": 98.813685, 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"energy": 28.074605, "activity_lines": [ 98.198001, 97.146182, 99.083524, 101.315462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 101.949997, "volume": 2050, "typical_volume": 23295.5, "trend": 104.067666, "fair_value": 98.752342, "relative_strength": -6.12202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.432377, "energy": 28.100704, "activity_lines": [ 99.917999, 98.012909, 99.181476, 101.169054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 105.5, "volume": 25600, "typical_volume": 24341.5, "trend": 103.939333, "fair_value": 98.813685, "relative_strength": -1.842658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.849933, "energy": 28.399305, "activity_lines": [ 102.117999, 99.496909, 99.633952, 101.261462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }