{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1644be33-dfc1-42b2-afff-65eddd5d53f6", "symbol": "CZR", "name": "CZR Resources Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.129, "architecture_energy": 22.657, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.287, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.47, "rotation_up": 27.77, "upward_expansion": 20.63, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 21.41, "downward_expansion": 54.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.225333, 0.218545, 0.227167, 0.241753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.23, "trend_reference": 0.2705, "distance_from_trend": -0.149723, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.259824, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.114784, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.909903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.352113, "excess_performance": -0.415818, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.149723, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19012, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.114784, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114973, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269099, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110277, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.352113, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.473036, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1190782, "relative_activity": 1.374581, "balance": 1.473036, "dry_up": 1.439459, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097826, "annualized_volatility": 0.511977, "from_high_reference": -0.535354, "from_low_reference": 0.277778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2705, "fair_value_reference": 0.259824, "structural_low": 0.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.40625, "median_excess_return": 0.001089, "regime_survival": 0.90625, "best_return": 0.538462, "worst_return": -0.27273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.018196, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.209302, "worst_return": -0.27273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.060897, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.006902, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.125014, "worst_return": -0.27273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.135593, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.020408, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -26.383773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.242524, "energy": 43.211823, "activity_lines": [ 0.214667, 0.214182, 0.229286, 0.248387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.23, "volume": 1253319, "typical_volume": 885675.45, "trend": 0.277333, "fair_value": 0.259503, "relative_strength": -24.702207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.281074, "energy": 32.628119, "activity_lines": [ 0.221333, 0.216182, 0.228119, 0.244806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.23, "volume": 1190782, "typical_volume": 866287.5, "trend": 0.2705, "fair_value": 0.259824, "relative_strength": -26.909903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.129457, "energy": 22.657413, "activity_lines": [ 0.225333, 0.218545, 0.227167, 0.241753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }