{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1646c509-7207-4eb1-943d-18c3fd8bb7d2", "symbol": "WEF", "name": "Western Forest Products Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.544, "architecture_energy": 55.837, "architecture_maturity": 65.464, "architecture_confidence": 78.377, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.72, "rotation_up": 57.16, "upward_expansion": 78.79, "deceleration": 66.9, "rotation_down": 22.06, "downward_expansion": 7.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.181333, 17.948363, 17.004904, 16.277806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.16, "trend_reference": 15.514666, "distance_from_trend": 0.23496, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.448665, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.240237, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 22.810821, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.18491, "excess_performance": 0.064489, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.23496, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164794, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.240237, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.377172, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.228108, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.229817, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.18491, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.843494, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 164700, "relative_activity": 1.104109, "balance": 1.843494, "dry_up": 1.070088, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069536, "annualized_volatility": 0.416125, "from_high_reference": -0.002083, "from_low_reference": 0.885827 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.514666, "fair_value_reference": 15.448665, "structural_low": 11.98, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.063982, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.050785, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.314721, "worst_return": -0.183036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.097956, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.069921, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.336123, "worst_return": -0.113173, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.052475, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007033, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.18491, "worst_return": -0.07996, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": 64.164281, "energy": 69.258527, "activity_lines": [ 17.597999, 17.078363, 16.025904, 15.461118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.85, "volume": 162800, "typical_volume": 158380.0, "trend": 14.829, "fair_value": 15.677412, "relative_strength": 18.8268, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.362348, "energy": 53.306781, "activity_lines": [ 17.619333, 17.347636, 16.274904, 15.671419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.309999, "volume": 157600, "typical_volume": 153205.0, "trend": 15.049666, "fair_value": 15.59114, "relative_strength": 14.671618, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.558582, "energy": 42.670141, "activity_lines": [ 17.479333, 17.454908, 16.454333, 15.831484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.08, "volume": 153400, "typical_volume": 149295.0, "trend": 15.272333, "fair_value": 15.513596, "relative_strength": 20.122884, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.851066, "energy": 42.628878, "activity_lines": [ 17.634666, 17.638181, 16.690571, 16.026989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.16, "volume": 164700, "typical_volume": 149170.0, "trend": 15.514666, "fair_value": 15.448665, "relative_strength": 22.810821, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.544214, "energy": 55.836512, "activity_lines": [ 18.181333, 17.948363, 17.004904, 16.277806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }