{ "ticker": { "uuid": "164a37c9-1ac3-4e81-b25a-2215fcae5a5a", "symbol": "VCT", "name": "Vicat S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.394, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.512, "architecture_energy": 7.295, "architecture_maturity": 24.939, "architecture_confidence": 52.074, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.53, "rotation_up": 23.75, "upward_expansion": 22.75, "deceleration": 54.06, "rotation_down": 36.63, "downward_expansion": 56.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.033333, 64.121818, 63.55765, 63.674249 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 66.699997, "trend_reference": 65.184087, "distance_from_trend": 0.023256, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.586668, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.463147, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.504211, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.097862, "excess_performance": -0.151174, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023256, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02757, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.463147, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022681, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035042, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026033, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097862, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.969955, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 184136, "relative_activity": 1.136068, "balance": 1.969955, "dry_up": 1.134894, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0617, "annualized_volatility": 0.351444, "from_high_reference": -0.156385, "from_low_reference": 0.204953 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.184087, "fair_value_reference": 45.586668, "structural_low": 56.322584, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.036844, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052795, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.121387, "worst_return": -0.198903, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.072835, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005235, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.204239, "worst_return": -0.171309, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.009558, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.025727, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.235415, "worst_return": -0.216299, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 61.5, "volume": 133853, "typical_volume": 169728.5, "trend": 66.186883, "fair_value": 44.886096, "relative_strength": -6.905216, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.456661, "energy": 14.437486, "activity_lines": [ 63.666667, 63.701818, 63.09318, 64.000944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.200001, "volume": 161433, "typical_volume": 165361.65, "trend": 65.767743, "fair_value": 45.097605, "relative_strength": -9.196852, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.179101, "energy": 28.550864, "activity_lines": [ 62.133334, 63.141819, 62.871705, 63.614694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.5, "volume": 256361, "typical_volume": 165495.4, "trend": 65.509141, "fair_value": 45.339137, "relative_strength": -2.879583, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.583747, "energy": 18.345101, "activity_lines": [ 62.853334, 63.556364, 63.172013, 63.59742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.699997, "volume": 184136, "typical_volume": 162081.9, "trend": 65.184087, "fair_value": 45.586668, "relative_strength": -3.504211, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.512377, "energy": 7.295249, "activity_lines": [ 64.033333, 64.121818, 63.55765, 63.674249 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }