{ "ticker": { "uuid": "164c64c7-8b85-47ea-a65a-2986c34a8ef9", "symbol": "EZTC3", "name": "EZTEC Empreendimentos e Participa\u00e7\u00f5es S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.565, "architecture_energy": 88.812, "architecture_maturity": 41.026, "architecture_confidence": 83.057, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.01, "rotation_up": 8.49, "upward_expansion": 20.81, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 79.65, "downward_expansion": 94.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.296667, 11.976545, 12.596404, 13.064896 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.76, "trend_reference": 13.669118, "distance_from_trend": -0.212824, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.275606, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.045728, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.488662, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.321453, "excess_performance": -0.264404, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.212824, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04924, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.045728, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223264, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.224887, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122369, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.321453, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.314952, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11899700, "relative_activity": 1.697366, "balance": 0.314952, "dry_up": 1.322988, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082473, "annualized_volatility": 0.35391, "from_high_reference": -0.351471, "from_low_reference": 0.100352 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.669118, "fair_value_reference": 11.275606, "structural_low": 10.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.01406, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.008916, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.199245, "worst_return": -0.238631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.030681, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.016439, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.564372, "worst_return": -0.251344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.060208, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.036551, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.479448, "worst_return": -0.394763, 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11.357177, "relative_strength": -9.003345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.198227, "energy": 23.855765, "activity_lines": [ 13.200667, 13.073401, 13.421179, 13.733094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.01, "volume": 12019200, "typical_volume": 7754880.0, "trend": 13.941118, "fair_value": 11.350053, "relative_strength": -14.861883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.498924, "energy": 38.631571, "activity_lines": [ 12.819333, 12.888545, 13.258073, 13.605204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.4, "volume": 7433000, "typical_volume": 7583170.0, "trend": 13.873909, "fair_value": 11.333341, "relative_strength": -19.200671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.036205, "energy": 66.678277, "activity_lines": [ 12.309333, 12.616545, 13.054342, 13.441261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.07, "volume": 5748300, "typical_volume": 7318730.0, "trend": 13.789746, "fair_value": 11.305997, "relative_strength": -23.003786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.015583, "energy": 83.100336, "activity_lines": [ 11.778667, 12.308, 12.834643, 13.260363 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.76, "volume": 11899700, "typical_volume": 7010685.0, "trend": 13.669118, "fair_value": 11.275606, "relative_strength": -22.488662, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.564652, "energy": 88.811802, "activity_lines": [ 11.296667, 11.976545, 12.596404, 13.064896 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }