{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1650d3bf-e24d-43cc-ad61-5b4ae0c116dd", "symbol": "MARW", "name": "ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY BUFFER20 MAR ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.084, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.438, "architecture_energy": 82.765, "architecture_maturity": 45.753, "architecture_confidence": 78.315, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.93, "rotation_up": 66.51, "upward_expansion": 92.16, "deceleration": 47.21, "rotation_down": 26.27, "downward_expansion": 16.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.368353, 36.243522, 36.033427, 35.704948 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 36.6377, "trend_reference": 35.30513, "distance_from_trend": 0.037744, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.316475, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169918, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.745735, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.058893, "excess_performance": -0.066732, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037744, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019868, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169918, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002654, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057457, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000644, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058893, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.235092, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9999, "relative_activity": 0.443129, "balance": 1.235092, "dry_up": 0.274324, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006454, "annualized_volatility": 0.051962, "from_high_reference": -0.000336, "from_low_reference": 0.111244 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.30513, "fair_value_reference": 31.316475, "structural_low": 33.625, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.006372, "positive_rate": 0.904762, "directional_follow_through": 0.904762, "median_excess_return": -0.003021, "regime_survival": 0.904762, "best_return": 0.042029, "worst_return": -0.022562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.022644, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.020802, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.051132, "worst_return": 0.004595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.056085, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016551, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.06197, "worst_return": 0.036352, "sufficient": false }, { 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31.252657, "relative_strength": -3.432995, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.396157, "energy": 81.80616, "activity_lines": [ 36.22482, 36.1433, 35.931949, 35.614312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.6377, "volume": 9999, "typical_volume": 22564.55, "trend": 35.30513, "fair_value": 31.316475, "relative_strength": -5.745735, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.437772, "energy": 82.765146, "activity_lines": [ 36.368353, 36.243522, 36.033427, 35.704948 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }