{ "ticker": { "uuid": "165423b9-dc50-46dc-9913-0cf8bd6321b2", "symbol": "BDLL3", "name": "Bardella S.A. Ind\u00fastrias Mec\u00e2nicas", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.979, "architecture_energy": 90.911, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.036, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.06, "rotation_up": 8.04, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 85.66, "downward_expansion": 100.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.594, 5.424909, 6.066476, 6.355914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 4.4, "trend_reference": 6.688, "distance_from_trend": -0.342105, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.137756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.565979, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.623947, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.375887, "excess_performance": -0.318838, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.342105, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143113, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.565979, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222754, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.456239, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158948, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.375887, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.480769, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17800, "relative_activity": 15.084746, "balance": 3.480769, "dry_up": 4.533898, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163636, "annualized_volatility": 0.68373, "from_high_reference": -0.555556, "from_low_reference": 0.073171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.688, "fair_value_reference": 10.137756, "structural_low": 4.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.344828, "directional_follow_through": 0.448276, "median_excess_return": 0.004318, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.311258, "worst_return": -0.206667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.025253, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005994, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.203704, "worst_return": -0.175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.05614, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.029119, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.212871, "worst_return": -0.208333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.015691, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022187, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.174257, "worst_return": -0.366667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083264, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084416, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.147518, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.164557, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.265688, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022222, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.2, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 355.0, "trend": 11.989, "fair_value": 14.243718, "relative_strength": -1.778593, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.965137, "energy": 17.196023, 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10.573846, "relative_strength": -35.682337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -97.258564, "energy": 77.754682, "activity_lines": [ 6.616667, 6.79, 6.935095, 7.293054 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 6.01, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 145.0, "trend": 7.805, "fair_value": 10.529167, "relative_strength": -34.130283, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -98.204419, "energy": 79.294176, "activity_lines": [ 6.366, 6.630727, 6.834905, 7.168882 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 7.9, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 150.0, "trend": 7.738333, "fair_value": 10.496603, "relative_strength": -10.505896, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.743584, "energy": 43.607145, "activity_lines": [ 6.811333, 6.833273, 6.922762, 7.175011 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 7.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 135.0, "trend": 7.671667, "fair_value": 10.463269, "relative_strength": -10.97454, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.028627, "energy": 11.259846, "activity_lines": [ 7.196667, 7.019636, 7.00919, 7.185441 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 6.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 125.0, "trend": 7.561667, "fair_value": 10.421603, "relative_strength": -23.747126, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.131527, "energy": 30.299679, "activity_lines": [ 7.088667, 6.953455, 6.968238, 7.116301 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 7.49, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 120.0, "trend": 7.481333, "fair_value": 10.39609, "relative_strength": -15.104386, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.177983, "energy": 28.124179, "activity_lines": [ 7.290667, 7.056545, 7.01419, 7.111677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 6.69, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 130.0, "trend": 7.374333, "fair_value": 10.362949, "relative_strength": -23.86913, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.823653, "energy": 18.804793, "activity_lines": [ 7.127333, 7.005455, 6.981857, 7.060624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.01, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 145.0, "trend": 7.244667, "fair_value": 10.325449, "relative_strength": -32.156045, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.153664, "energy": 42.829335, "activity_lines": [ 6.692, 6.836364, 6.886476, 6.972602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.5, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 180.0, "trend": 7.098, "fair_value": 10.284679, "relative_strength": -35.537799, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.623763, "energy": 74.451888, "activity_lines": [ 6.212667, 6.592545, 6.747476, 6.860043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.5, "volume": 2200, "typical_volume": 285.0, "trend": 6.918, "fair_value": 10.2375, "relative_strength": -46.517364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.281926, "energy": 90.513904, "activity_lines": [ 5.56, 6.194182, 6.523762, 6.69243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.1, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 290.0, "trend": 6.798, "fair_value": 10.187756, "relative_strength": -51.598748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.180911, "energy": 95.520676, "activity_lines": [ 4.914, 5.764909, 6.273905, 6.510624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.4, "volume": 17800, "typical_volume": 1180.0, "trend": 6.688, "fair_value": 10.137756, "relative_strength": -45.623947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.978859, "energy": 90.911452, "activity_lines": [ 4.594, 5.424909, 6.066476, 6.355914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }