{ "ticker": { "uuid": "165a05e6-2a40-48fd-87f8-a6854a25a61b", "symbol": "FOFD", "name": "Franklin Future of Food UCITS E", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.28, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.935, "architecture_energy": 63.792, "architecture_maturity": 13.502, "architecture_confidence": 60.226, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.48, "rotation_up": 75.08, "upward_expansion": 85.71, "deceleration": 51.43, "rotation_down": 12.4, "downward_expansion": 10.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.910333, 24.748454, 24.312476, 24.195957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.139999, "trend_reference": 24.085666, "distance_from_trend": 0.043774, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.808955, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.102199, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.117078, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.035207, "excess_performance": -0.135685, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043774, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029713, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.102199, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071475, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081171, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024486, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035207, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.12334, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 270, "relative_activity": 1.217587, "balance": 3.12334, "dry_up": 1.234498, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018282, "annualized_volatility": 0.131028, "from_high_reference": -0.01082, "from_low_reference": 0.15189 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.085666, "fair_value_reference": 22.808955, "structural_low": 23.049999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.002481, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.009432, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.059458, "worst_return": -0.058726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.005134, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.060238, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.006771, "worst_return": -0.065574, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.006663, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047733, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.056696, "worst_return": -0.04337, "sufficient": false }, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 24.924999, "volume": 476, "typical_volume": 203.55, "trend": 23.853666, "fair_value": 22.770594, "relative_strength": -6.467163, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.282085, "energy": 86.307, "activity_lines": [ 24.778, 24.348273, 24.037452, 24.007322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.91, "volume": 207, "typical_volume": 208.05, "trend": 23.941167, "fair_value": 22.784308, "relative_strength": -6.146029, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.838348, "energy": 83.577118, "activity_lines": [ 24.862, 24.506545, 24.131524, 24.075473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.684999, "volume": 142, "typical_volume": 212.75, "trend": 24.016333, "fair_value": 22.795173, "relative_strength": -7.352911, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.981129, "energy": 66.312581, "activity_lines": [ 24.805999, 24.599091, 24.201524, 24.123462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.139999, "volume": 270, "typical_volume": 221.75, "trend": 24.085666, "fair_value": 22.808955, "relative_strength": -8.117078, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.93505, "energy": 63.792026, "activity_lines": [ 24.910333, 24.748454, 24.312476, 24.195957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }