{ "ticker": { "uuid": "165d29bf-dfc1-4691-9a91-2918127dabe0", "symbol": "FC", "name": "Franklin Covey Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 65.985, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.648, "architecture_energy": 13.568, "architecture_maturity": 44.956, "architecture_confidence": 88.403, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.06, "rotation_up": 18.23, "upward_expansion": 45.02, "deceleration": 85.6, "rotation_down": 34.84, "downward_expansion": 27.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.212, 21.749636, 22.19981, 21.214538 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.81, "trend_reference": 20.136, "distance_from_trend": 0.083135, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.934167, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.271401, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.107899, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.119035, "excess_performance": -0.006589, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083135, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112609, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.271401, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02566, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021079, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015553, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119035, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.140749, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 384187, "relative_activity": 0.615098, "balance": 1.140749, "dry_up": 0.644107, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122491, "annualized_volatility": 0.861334, "from_high_reference": -0.186498, "from_low_reference": 0.954301 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.136, "fair_value_reference": 29.934167, "structural_low": 11.16, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.020045, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.010977, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.107634, "worst_return": -0.124939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.02707, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.077939, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.012051, "worst_return": -0.07218, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.09725, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.117366, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.053861, "worst_return": -0.112401, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.324957, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011149, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029616, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075444, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 45.07, "volume": 134907, "typical_volume": 370597.1, "trend": 42.189, "fair_value": 38.615, "relative_strength": -7.115609, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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20.650624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 21.78, "volume": 1134179, "typical_volume": 742448.0, "trend": 19.505333, "fair_value": 30.742436, "relative_strength": 4.700436, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.653528, "energy": 38.726116, "activity_lines": [ 23.5, 23.396909, 22.049143, 20.810043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.97, "volume": 616451, "typical_volume": 743892.7, "trend": 19.65, "fair_value": 30.588397, "relative_strength": -0.246556, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.885667, "energy": 23.565984, "activity_lines": [ 22.572667, 23.022909, 22.143286, 20.904538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.28, "volume": 386729, "typical_volume": 715086.4, "trend": 19.763333, "fair_value": 30.431667, "relative_strength": -1.753797, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.637102, "energy": 18.192365, "activity_lines": [ 21.612667, 22.532727, 22.142905, 20.945183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.6, "volume": 372519, "typical_volume": 704512.3, "trend": 19.880667, "fair_value": 30.265897, "relative_strength": 0.694342, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.808383, "energy": 17.569949, "activity_lines": [ 21.028667, 22.134727, 22.138429, 20.999161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.45, "volume": 465789, "typical_volume": 661778.1, "trend": 20.041, "fair_value": 30.093397, "relative_strength": 3.825304, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.421406, "energy": 17.633681, "activity_lines": [ 20.947333, 21.889273, 22.175571, 21.100409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.81, "volume": 384187, "typical_volume": 624595.2, "trend": 20.136, "fair_value": 29.934167, "relative_strength": 2.107899, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.648254, "energy": 13.567813, "activity_lines": [ 21.212, 21.749636, 22.19981, 21.214538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }