{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16606b07-863e-42f6-8e67-4bb0c9bc5e3f", "symbol": "TQI", "name": "Telecom Italia S.p.A. A", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.909, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.949, "architecture_energy": 28.235, "architecture_maturity": 65.63, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.76, "rotation_up": 23.81, "upward_expansion": 58.93, "deceleration": 90.98, "rotation_down": 29.79, "downward_expansion": 22.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.5566, 7.711345, 7.513914, 7.212469 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.552, "trend_reference": 6.786733, "distance_from_trend": 0.112759, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.431, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.201108, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 30.793057, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.219244, "excess_performance": 0.154605, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.112759, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180377, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.201108, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117838, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.307931, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.397628, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.219244, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.129151, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44877, "relative_activity": 4.690444, "balance": 3.129151, "dry_up": 1.71579, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047405, "annualized_volatility": 0.293758, "from_high_reference": -0.091215, "from_low_reference": 2.145356 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.786733, "fair_value_reference": 3.431, "structural_low": 5.308, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.010283, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.041152, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.934611, "worst_return": -0.144859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.121985, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.065454, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.955435, "worst_return": -0.33745, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.044828, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.021227, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.643065, "worst_return": -0.523391, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.310502, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.387601, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.258621, "worst_return": -0.362384, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2023-06-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095203, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101816, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.005357, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.178255, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163347, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089015, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043913, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.402431, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030886, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.161361, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.636, "volume": 3797, "typical_volume": 19332.0, "trend": 2.7753, "fair_value": 3.243249, "relative_strength": 0.849808, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.903272, "energy": 9.164559, "activity_lines": [ 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5348, "typical_volume": 12312.0, "trend": 6.444833, "fair_value": 3.306288, "relative_strength": 56.514981, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.871426, "energy": 73.861936, "activity_lines": [ 8.027467, 7.800727, 7.310505, 6.960602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.798, "volume": 6030, "typical_volume": 12117.6, "trend": 6.5365, "fair_value": 3.339769, "relative_strength": 50.710032, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.454976, "energy": 60.89419, "activity_lines": [ 7.9652, 7.838291, 7.394495, 7.047903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.5, "volume": 10181, "typical_volume": 10994.2, "trend": 6.63, "fair_value": 3.369641, "relative_strength": 40.808043, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.907569, "energy": 52.383968, "activity_lines": [ 7.809067, 7.806982, 7.44319, 7.110065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.37, "volume": 4577, "typical_volume": 9309.6, "trend": 6.704733, "fair_value": 3.400538, "relative_strength": 33.269669, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.179699, "energy": 34.25869, "activity_lines": [ 7.638667, 7.743709, 7.473581, 7.157806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.552, "volume": 44877, "typical_volume": 9567.75, "trend": 6.786733, "fair_value": 3.431, "relative_strength": 30.793057, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.94878, "energy": 28.234728, "activity_lines": [ 7.5566, 7.711345, 7.513914, 7.212469 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }