{ "ticker": { "uuid": "16643d05-3913-4d09-a595-c4dff42e718a", "symbol": "UE", "name": "Urban Edge Properties", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.555, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.009, "architecture_energy": 19.176, "architecture_maturity": 69.805, "architecture_confidence": 76.874, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.92, "rotation_up": 29.07, "upward_expansion": 61.71, "deceleration": 87.69, "rotation_down": 28.46, "downward_expansion": 16.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.6, 22.814506, 22.537773, 22.069958 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.63, "trend_reference": 21.37199, "distance_from_trend": 0.012072, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.394336, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.175905, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.59687, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.048566, "excess_performance": -0.077059, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012072, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069456, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.175905, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037123, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055969, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042371, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048566, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.947018, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4461308, "relative_activity": 1.023062, "balance": 0.947018, "dry_up": 0.916993, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052983, "annualized_volatility": 0.21238, "from_high_reference": -0.095736, "from_low_reference": 0.206086 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.37199, "fair_value_reference": 18.394336, "structural_low": 19.470712, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.008709, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.008795, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.106845, "worst_return": -0.066745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.075483, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.061607, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.10524, "worst_return": -0.189205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030287, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.060416, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.086295, "worst_return": -0.290868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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22.759329, 22.146308, 21.61347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.7, "volume": 3603083, "typical_volume": 4516789.1, "trend": 20.999983, "fair_value": 18.254174, "relative_strength": 7.644772, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.870019, "energy": 53.099255, "activity_lines": [ 23.166, 22.984613, 22.347266, 21.797836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.35, "volume": 4317913, "typical_volume": 4518434.6, "trend": 21.145641, "fair_value": 18.307439, "relative_strength": 6.576767, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.282437, "energy": 46.649756, "activity_lines": [ 23.276667, 23.104693, 22.501291, 21.94945 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.66, "volume": 3612767, "typical_volume": 4454874.55, "trend": 21.276472, "fair_value": 18.353701, "relative_strength": 2.269958, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.64134, "energy": 39.255596, "activity_lines": [ 23.085333, 23.058529, 22.574071, 22.04715 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.63, "volume": 4461308, "typical_volume": 4360740.25, "trend": 21.37199, "fair_value": 18.394336, "relative_strength": -5.59687, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.009436, "energy": 19.176128, "activity_lines": [ 22.6, 22.814506, 22.537773, 22.069958 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }