{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1667d27a-4ef8-45ea-bc8a-af2e341e6cfd", "symbol": "002016", "name": "Guangdong Shirongzhaoye Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.066, "architecture_energy": 42.525, "architecture_maturity": 99.782, "architecture_confidence": 63.34, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.62, "rotation_up": 27.1, "upward_expansion": 18.79, "deceleration": 66.98, "rotation_down": 41.9, "downward_expansion": 68.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.245333, 4.221522, 4.500888, 4.819248 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.41, "trend_reference": 5.228313, "distance_from_trend": -0.156516, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.964181, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.260586, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.798905, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.281759, "excess_performance": -0.289159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156516, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110168, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.260586, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134418, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237989, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017387, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.281759, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.630578, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63282831, "relative_activity": 1.27483, "balance": 0.630578, "dry_up": 1.136403, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089144, "annualized_volatility": 0.271621, "from_high_reference": -0.3875, "from_low_reference": 0.136598 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.228313, "fair_value_reference": 5.964181, "structural_low": 3.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.00038, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014952, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.184971, "worst_return": -0.19279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.012456, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.030612, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.183044, "worst_return": -0.297391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.065836, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.163139, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.310136, "worst_return": -0.232508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070568, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.099451, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07967, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.331701, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105169, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 50231255.1, "trend": 5.395313, "fair_value": 6.01041, "relative_strength": -25.874386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.222124, "energy": 82.018122, "activity_lines": [ 4.133418, 4.30695, 4.712117, 5.031803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.03, "volume": 58923431, "typical_volume": 49836694.15, "trend": 5.325313, "fair_value": 5.993676, "relative_strength": -28.991335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.804391, "energy": 70.58376, "activity_lines": [ 4.093333, 4.225892, 4.613025, 4.943719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.26, "volume": 47740469, "typical_volume": 49583643.1, "trend": 5.27398, "fair_value": 5.979244, "relative_strength": -23.141544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.340818, "energy": 57.665317, "activity_lines": [ 4.152, 4.205167, 4.545837, 4.874989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.41, "volume": 63282831, "typical_volume": 49640230.4, "trend": 5.228313, "fair_value": 5.964181, "relative_strength": -23.798905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.065867, "energy": 42.525479, "activity_lines": [ 4.245333, 4.221522, 4.500888, 4.819248 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }