{ "ticker": { "uuid": "166bde27-956b-4025-91e6-40f4398c57b8", "symbol": "600089", "name": "TBEA Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.208, "architecture_energy": 61.007, "architecture_maturity": 41.971, "architecture_confidence": 91.09, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.46, "rotation_up": 22.92, "upward_expansion": 11.28, "deceleration": 58.62, "rotation_down": 56.33, "downward_expansion": 82.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.597333, 20.942783, 22.71788, 24.114616 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.33, "trend_reference": 25.634806, "distance_from_trend": -0.167928, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.385139, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.301789, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.637369, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.215809, "excess_performance": -0.172605, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167928, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013249, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.301789, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.418641, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056374, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.30971, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.215809, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.616899, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 596769561, "relative_activity": 1.022819, "balance": 0.616899, "dry_up": 1.068794, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079764, "annualized_volatility": 0.366022, "from_high_reference": -0.359074, "from_low_reference": 0.613464 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.634806, "fair_value_reference": 16.385139, "structural_low": 18.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.005104, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.005508, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.305659, "worst_return": -0.136954, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.071322, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.008749, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.609016, "worst_return": -0.075589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.062413, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.084294, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.295511, "worst_return": -0.1035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -10.535789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.00161, "energy": 93.777981, "activity_lines": [ 21.445258, 22.828177, 24.610816, 25.524996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.66, "volume": 490491222, "typical_volume": 713612353.85, "trend": 25.798139, "fair_value": 16.282156, "relative_strength": -12.096575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.662758, "energy": 95.76547, "activity_lines": [ 20.372945, 21.854283, 23.897463, 25.053396 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.389999, "volume": 879888026, "typical_volume": 649794905.95, "trend": 25.748472, "fair_value": 16.315307, "relative_strength": -5.806445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.777687, "energy": 86.426134, "activity_lines": [ 20.14352, 21.350207, 23.404491, 24.704483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.940001, "volume": 527226886, "typical_volume": 601028632.95, "trend": 25.664472, "fair_value": 16.347573, "relative_strength": -4.227894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.997984, "energy": 74.709241, "activity_lines": [ 20.267333, 21.064858, 23.020281, 24.394259 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.33, "volume": 596769561, "typical_volume": 583455570.6, "trend": 25.634806, "fair_value": 16.385139, "relative_strength": -5.637369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.207975, "energy": 61.007444, "activity_lines": [ 20.597333, 20.942783, 22.71788, 24.114616 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }