{ "ticker": { "uuid": "166ecbb2-a9c9-41fd-bec3-99f32977d02c", "symbol": "300865", "name": "Chengdu Dahongli Machinery Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.794, "architecture_energy": 60.387, "architecture_maturity": 25.8, "architecture_confidence": 92.165, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 16.0, "upward_expansion": 11.52, "deceleration": 43.79, "rotation_down": 64.18, "downward_expansion": 84.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.732666, 22.314887, 24.581623, 25.664589 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.98, "trend_reference": 26.955844, "distance_from_trend": -0.147495, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.601148, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026319, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.346243, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.209766, "excess_performance": -0.217166, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147495, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064365, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026319, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.443445, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223462, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130447, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.209766, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.201398, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6655983, "relative_activity": 0.746381, "balance": 0.201398, "dry_up": 0.863297, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115938, "annualized_volatility": 0.439857, "from_high_reference": -0.391097, "from_low_reference": 0.216517 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.955844, "fair_value_reference": 23.601148, "structural_low": 18.889999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.046646, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.035794, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 1.237903, "worst_return": -0.12172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.043746, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.013145, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.639785, "worst_return": -0.114824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.035049, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029597, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.459875, "worst_return": -0.187207, "sufficient": true }, { 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.817388, "energy": 75.378514, "activity_lines": [ 23.368, 24.903464, 26.594487, 27.203797 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.18, "volume": 8373929, "typical_volume": 8677931.85, "trend": 27.517177, "fair_value": 23.610282, "relative_strength": -28.329389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.635337, "energy": 76.089027, "activity_lines": [ 22.527333, 23.908496, 26.004795, 26.782882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.209999, "volume": 9627575, "typical_volume": 8817639.8, "trend": 27.288844, "fair_value": 23.599883, "relative_strength": -31.13581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.233659, "energy": 74.269237, "activity_lines": [ 21.631333, 22.951357, 25.36596, 26.311451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.379999, "volume": 6136923, "typical_volume": 8856155.55, "trend": 27.097511, "fair_value": 23.594237, "relative_strength": -24.923853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.589938, "energy": 71.307014, "activity_lines": [ 21.397999, 22.402819, 24.880839, 25.930235 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.98, "volume": 6655983, "typical_volume": 8917674.8, "trend": 26.955844, "fair_value": 23.601148, "relative_strength": -22.346243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.794274, "energy": 60.386901, "activity_lines": [ 21.732666, 22.314887, 24.581623, 25.664589 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }