{ "ticker": { "uuid": "167154c1-919f-4fba-9488-8c21a4d94734", "symbol": "SVOL-B", "name": "Svolder AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 56.975, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.724, "architecture_energy": 70.127, "architecture_maturity": 12.387, "architecture_confidence": 72.045, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.36, "rotation_up": 70.82, "upward_expansion": 91.02, "deceleration": 42.52, "rotation_down": 12.92, "downward_expansion": 15.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.879999, 55.067272, 54.063464, 53.064364 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 56.849998, "trend_reference": 52.646595, "distance_from_trend": 0.079842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 54.451646, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.044046, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.567664, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.119904, "excess_performance": 0.058409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079842, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007645, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.044046, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090296, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055677, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069711, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119904, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.049444, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 582665, "relative_activity": 0.849709, "balance": 1.049444, "dry_up": 0.846113, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0411, "annualized_volatility": 0.200003, "from_high_reference": -0.094079, "from_low_reference": 0.279944 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.646595, "fair_value_reference": 54.451646, "structural_low": 44.415998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.022834, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.022396, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.078397, "worst_return": -0.147566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.014742, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.0804, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.117529, "worst_return": -0.219443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.048156, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.099647, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08778, "worst_return": -0.066383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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54.414552, "relative_strength": -5.962153, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.388817, "energy": 38.493711, "activity_lines": [ 54.443333, 54.148182, 53.190194, 52.559374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.450001, "volume": 568369, "typical_volume": 719747.7, "trend": 52.705793, "fair_value": 54.429139, "relative_strength": -4.698844, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.825483, "energy": 58.872269, "activity_lines": [ 55.196666, 54.59, 53.627133, 52.796996 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.849998, "volume": 582665, "typical_volume": 685723.1, "trend": 52.646595, "fair_value": 54.451646, "relative_strength": -5.567664, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.724224, "energy": 70.126519, "activity_lines": [ 55.879999, 55.067272, 54.063464, 53.064364 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }